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Old 11-20-2019, 04:31 AM   #1
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Default The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

Stick with me here. I've been collecting diecast for a long time and know a thing or two about business, at least I think I do.

Over the last decade and a half or so, diecast aircraft collecting has experienced a renaissance, led by Hobbymaster, based on two major factors:

1. Hobbymaster (and its competitors) have produced subjects never seen before in top-quality diecast and
2. Hobbymaster (and its competitors) materially advanced the quality and accuracy of diecast aircraft - ie, the "state of the art" or "AAA" quality.

Key to the financial success of every manufacturer in this period has been the ability to sell thousands of copies a given mould in multiple liveries. Taken with a thick brush, diecast subjects could be classified as either "obvious" or "obscure." Obvious releases include things like the F-14, F-35, P-51, Su-27, F-4, and other hot sellers.

Here we are 15 years or so later. Hast the "state of the art" changed? Well, a bit, sure, but not much. HM's releases today are, in the first approximation, similar quality-wise to theirs 15 years ago. The last big quality jumps in aircraft on the "obvious" list - mig29, eurofighter typhoon, su27 are happening now.

And once those are done? What is left on the "obvious" list for AAA release?

In 1/72, there's not much other than closed-off French jets and the V-22 osprey come to mind. Maybe something like the B-17. Beyond that there are very few multiple-thousands-multiple-liveries aircraft left that haven't been done already in "state of the art" diecast.

What you're left with then are secondary subjects (gripen, trainers, chinese jets), modifications and variants on existing toolings (f-105g and other 2-seaters, growler hornet, and the like), re-dos of existing AAA releases that are now hard to find (CW intruders, crusaders, and corsair 2s), and re-runs of popular liveries of existing releases. Which are all great in their own way and I'm sure some of us will find things to buy and like.. but none of which are that money train of AAA releases of multiple-thousands multiple-liveries, really.

And, though lord knows consumers in this hobby tend to be hoarders, the industry is hampered by the longevity and space requirements of the items. You can surely on ebay find a cw or hobbymaster release from 15 years ago "never opened" on ebay that is for all practical purposes as good as the day it was made. As people get bored with the hobby or rationalize their collections, manufacturers will be increasingly competing with their own customers for new sales.

What to be done?
- HM and others will continue to seek out the last few multiple-thousand multiple livery subjects out there. Re-doing some franklin mint 1/48 subjects will probably do this somewhat - HM is totally silly for not having done a 1/48 dauntless in the runup to the midway movie, for example, and a hellcat is surely in the works.
- HM and others will increasingly look to secondary subjects, but the overall profitability on these will likely be low.
- HM and others should do what i've been saying for years: concentrate on making their packaging collapsible. I don't quite think they have a scooby doo about how much their future sales depend on this.
- And, finally, HM and others should increase the state of the art - invest in the next AAA that will obsolete today's AAA standards - again, as I've been saying for years - a HM 'premium' range. At twice the price and the wow factor to make collectors feel that their existing X just doesn't cut it any more. As with record companies making you want to pay again for the same music when you format switch from tapes to cds to digital, HM and its competitors need to find that next format. in addition to overall quality improvements, adding subtle lighting to models may reinvigorate some releases since lighting can be added quite cheaply. vastly improved cockpits and landing gear are probably a good place to go too.

otherwise, the lack of multiple-thousand multiple-livery subjects to be done in AAA quality will invariably grind this hobby down and existing collectors will drift away in a 3-5 year time period when their last niches and last physical space is used up.

Last edited by FortunateSon; 11-20-2019 at 05:00 AM.
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Old 11-20-2019, 05:31 AM   #2
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

Not a military model collector here. I never read this forum and have no clue as to the goings on within this particular niche. Only reason I clicked on this thread is because it happened to catch my eye under the "latest threads" header, and the title seemed salacious enough, so I clicked it.

As a 1:200 airliner collector for 15+ years, and also someone who knows a thing or two about business, I'll simply say that some know-it-all on the 1:200 forum predicted that scale's downfall--back in 2014, I think--within 2 years. And well, guess what? Today, that scale is as alive and thriving as ever. So just a precaution to anyone reading this thread: take these sorts of predictions with a heavy serving of sodium.

Last edited by Skosh; 11-20-2019 at 05:54 AM.
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Old 11-20-2019, 05:33 AM   #3
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

There are a couple of notable considerations that perhaps are not mentioned in your interesting post.

1. HM and others (notably CalWings) are utilising shorter runs,......but as part of a split run. HM are now finding a way to release WW2 subjects with 300-400 manufacturing runs. The latest A20 is a perfect example. Around 400 are being manufacturerd, but when added to "Little Joe" that run more than doubles, with the only change pad-printing. This enables longevity for, what called be described as "obscure types". Sometimes the result is less than desired,...the recent P40N announcements for example, but overall it has worked for them. It even works more for jets with the plethora of greys and blues.

2. HM's and others, gravitation to the more international flavour. This will allow more releases of more types,..including obscure types. This continues to grow,..watch this space,...because this has a long way to go.

3. Many toolings have still a long ways to go. In HM's case toolings have longevity simply because of the vast tooling bank that HM have. Existing tooling can be rested regularly to keep the tooling fresh and still not effect HM's monthly releases.

4. Whilst 1:48 is very well developed for WW2, Jets will slowly increase in tooling types. The HM 1:48 F4 is still very much alive for example. There will others, I am sure.

5. And there are still toolings that can be done to death. MI24 is but one example,...….and if someone can get around licensing issues,...then the D/H Huey is a tooling that will just keep in giving for ages. Along with French Jets, F5A and others.

I think the 3-5 year timeline is a bit pessimistic. But then again,...I have always been a optimist with regards to our Hobby.
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Old 11-20-2019, 06:44 AM   #4
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Light Fire Team View Post
There are a couple of notable considerations that perhaps are not mentioned in your interesting post.
So, your points 1, 2, and 3 are all fair points. However, I place these in the realm of lower profit, industry contraction type activities. all involve more specialized effort, manufacturing, and distribution and a lot of that necessarsily involves selling to buyers who already have quite a few of that particular model. In other words, they are squeezing the orange to get just that much more juice - hardly the sign of a healthy industry.

With regards to point 2 especially - I'd be first in line to be THRILLED if that were true. I love obscure types and to have obscure types done even in HM's current standard style that would be great. Bring on the Tracker and Tracer and Cougar and Demon! Skyknight and Claude and Bronco and Yak-141. Sure, why not. But is it really true? These are all secondary subjects - same development cost, less sales potential, less one-buyer-gets-multiple-liveries potential. I have something like 100 1/72 phantoms of all makes. And one Hawkeye. Not hard to see where the profit is.

So yes, HM will continue to do split runs and repaints and whatever - and that will keep them in business. But it's hardly the sign of a continuous 'flourishing.'

I'm a little bit skeptical of 1/48 jets. i think HM could do a 1/48 phantom and tomcat and maybe even f-35 and do them profitably. too far beyond that and you start to run into the areas that causes franklin mint to tank. 1/48 ww2 single engine subjects i think are the one legitimate growth area, as HM could actually re-run much of its 1/72 single engine line in 1/48 and sell 400-600 units of most.

5. And there are still toolings that can be done to death. MI24 is but one example,...….and if someone can get around licensing issues,...then the D/H Huey is a tooling that will just keep in giving for ages. Along with French Jets, F5A and others.

Mi24 is a good call. that is a borderline thouands-multiple-liveries seller and i agree that's a very good choice. but much beyond that i just dont think there's too many examples you can come up with. french licensing if it comes will prolong things a bit, but only a bit.

incidentally, a growth area which i think they should go into, and i've mentioned this before, is GA aircraft in 1/48 or 1/32. C-152, C-150, C-172, SR-22, PA-28-161, DA-20, and the like. Hundreds of thousands of pilots have flown 'em and many would buy. But this is a different market.

and to the guy who piped up here to say "some guy has been wrong before therefor you also might be wrong", umm, thanks for sharing. To be clear, I'm not predicting the bankrupcy of any one company; but i am predicting trends that lead to the end of growth. hm can milk existing, repaint, or produce minor vairants, but none of those will lead to much more than at best a levelling off of the hobby.
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Old 11-20-2019, 07:21 AM   #5
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FortunateSon View Post
and to the guy who piped up here to say "some guy has been wrong before therefor you also might be wrong", umm, thanks for sharing. To be clear, I'm not predicting the bankrupcy of any one company; but i am predicting trends that lead to the end of growth. hm can milk existing, repaint, or produce minor vairants, but none of those will lead to much more than at best a levelling off of the hobby.
Well, thank you for sharing this insight! The way you write instills a lot of confidence in me. I am quite sure a person of such high intellect as yourself is completely correct about your mild and milktoast predictions.
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Old 11-20-2019, 07:56 AM   #6
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Originally Posted by Skosh View Post
Well, thank you for sharing this insight! The way you write instills a lot of confidence in me. I am quite sure a person of such high intellect as yourself is completely correct about your mild and milktoast predictions.
It's spelled "milquetoast."

Thanks again for sharing. You have contributed much to this discussion, as I'm sure you do to the wider world around you.
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Old 11-20-2019, 08:08 AM   #7
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Originally Posted by FortunateSon View Post
It's spelled "milquetoast."

Thanks again for sharing. You have contributed much to this discussion, as I'm sure you do to the wider world around you.
No sir. "Milktoast" is an appropriate spelling when used as an adjective. Reference: https://www.dictionary.com/browse/milk-toast

You made a thread with a clickbait-y title, backed it up with poor arguments, and with a writing style which leaves much to be desired. Don't be upset when someone calls you out on this.

What a great "contribution" you have made.

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Old 11-20-2019, 08:39 AM   #8
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Originally Posted by Skosh View Post

What's particularly funny is that you're so dumb that you can't even cite your own sources correctly. https://www.dictionary.com/browse/milktoast. There's the "milktoast" you used. Dictionary.com, cites "milk-toast" (with a dash) as a synonym of "milquetoast", though more grown up dictionaries clarify this by clueing us in to the fact that "milk-toast" is actually what's known as an "eggcorn" spelling of the word.

So, while you're criticizing my writing style, perfesser, I might suggest that you learn to read.

And here's the thing - if you find my arguments to be weak, but don't actually tell us why, then you're nothing but a time-waster. And you've proven this for three posts in a row.

so... into the block list you go. please continue to rage on in impotent butthurt fury here as much as you'd like.

lonk:
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Old 11-20-2019, 08:55 AM   #9
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Originally Posted by FortunateSon View Post
What's particularly funny is that you're so dumb that you can't even cite your own sources correctly. https://www.dictionary.com/browse/milktoast. There's the "milktoast" you used. Dictionary.com, cites "milk-toast" (with a dash) as a synonym of "milquetoast", though more grown up dictionaries clarify this by clueing us in to the fact that "milk-toast" is actually what's known as an "eggcorn" spelling of the word.

So, while you're criticizing my writing style, perfesser, I might suggest that you learn to read.

And here's the thing - if you find my arguments to be weak, but don't actually tell us why, then you're nothing but a time-waster. And you've proven this for three posts in a row.

so... into the block list you go. please continue to range on in impotent butthurt fury here as much as you like.

lonk:
You're so dumb you can't even quote my post correctly.

And actually, that's called a hyphen, YOU IDIOT. Boy, you are really stooping here. Sure, maybe I coulda shoulda used a hyphen. Buuuuut here's another source showing "milktoast" (notice the lack of hyphen) as an accepted variant spelling of "milquetoast": https://www.collinsdictionary.com/us...lish/milktoast

I rest my case.

I'll bow out of this friendly discussion since there indeed seems to be some "butthurt" here, but it's most certainly not on my part. I was merely disappointed when I clicked on what seemed to be a promising thread, but instead found a bunch of non sequiturs and emotional drivel.

I'll go back to the more civil part of the forum, and let you military collecting, neanderthal imbeciles do your thang. Peace out.
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Old 11-20-2019, 09:09 AM   #10
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

What a useless thread.
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Old 11-20-2019, 05:29 PM   #11
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Originally Posted by FortunateSon View Post
So, your points 1, 2, and 3 are all fair points. However, I place these in the realm of lower profit, industry contraction type activities. all involve more specialized effort, manufacturing, and distribution and a lot of that necessarsily involves selling to buyers who already have quite a few of that particular model. In other words, they are squeezing the orange to get just that much more juice - hardly the sign of a healthy industry.

With regards to point 2 especially - I'd be first in line to be THRILLED if that were true. I love obscure types and to have obscure types done even in HM's current standard style that would be great. Bring on the Tracker and Tracer and Cougar and Demon! Skyknight and Claude and Bronco and Yak-141. Sure, why not. But is it really true? These are all secondary subjects - same development cost, less sales potential, less one-buyer-gets-multiple-liveries potential. I have something like 100 1/72 phantoms of all makes. And one Hawkeye. Not hard to see where the profit is.

So yes, HM will continue to do split runs and repaints and whatever - and that will keep them in business. But it's hardly the sign of a continuous 'flourishing.'

I'm a little bit skeptical of 1/48 jets. i think HM could do a 1/48 phantom and tomcat and maybe even f-35 and do them profitably. too far beyond that and you start to run into the areas that causes franklin mint to tank. 1/48 ww2 single engine subjects i think are the one legitimate growth area, as HM could actually re-run much of its 1/72 single engine line in 1/48 and sell 400-600 units of most.

5. And there are still toolings that can be done to death. MI24 is but one example,...….and if someone can get around licensing issues,...then the D/H Huey is a tooling that will just keep in giving for ages. Along with French Jets, F5A and others.
I think margins across the Hobby are a lot less than what it used to be. Particularly HM,...but they make up for it in volume. The Hobby has certainly changed over the past five years but I think it has adapted relatively well.

There has been plenty of discussion regarding the US/China trade dispute. Although I did not initially quite understand it, its now clear to me that its the single issue is have a big effect on the Hobby. Then there is BREXIT.

As for 1:48,..we will see. But the genie is out of the bottle. Personally if I was HM, I would start with the F16. But perhaps HM think the F4 is getting long in the tooth and its time for a change, whereas the F16 is the gift that keeps on giving. I really don't know. But I know the F4 is on hold.

Again, if I was having a guess the trade dispute and BREXIT are having an effect and plenty in the Hobby are waiting for those to resolve prior to any risky investment.
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Old 11-21-2019, 01:22 PM   #12
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

Interesting discussion, FS and LFT. I would add that among the post WW2 subjects that remain to be done in the 1:72nd scale are the B-47, B-36, Bear, Badger, many types of large transports, etc. And, of course, going back to the WW2 era, scores of famous or worthy planes have yet to be replicated---SM-79, Betty, PE-2, Hudson, Kingfisher, Piper Cub, C-46, etc.



The problem, of course is the evolution of business plans. The one plane at a time model long used by HM, Corgi and many others now departed---Gemini, Dragon, C1, etc. works mainly when you avoid risks and go with usual subjects. Since it takes something like five 1000- run schemes to just break even on a new tooling, this is why the one plane at a time folks have run out of subjects that are worth tackling. On the other hand, the low priced, modest quality partwork lines which begin with a "publisher" like Altaya, Hachette, DeAgostini, etc. offering two-year subscriptions featuring 40-80 models distributed in bi-weekly or slightly longer doses---is a business plan which might still work to give us many of the planes we would like to see. Here, it's the series as a whole that makes the sale, coupled with low--"bargain" pricing. Later, with the mold costs thus amortized, the manufacturer reissues the models---often with new schemes---via normal distribution channels---as opposed to going direct to the customer which is what the publishers do----and real profits can be made. The latest example of this is the Oxford WW2 series, which started as a publisher's line ( Atlas Editions ).


The question is, will there be enough support for an improved quality---but no frills---subscription series of , say, 1:72nd scale WW2 "mediums" where the initial sale is for 50-60 models spread out for two to three years---not one at a time? The same question applies for other thematic lines in the same scale--float planes, observation planes, cargo/troop carriers, etc. or post WW2 biggies---B-47, Bear, etc---- perhaps in a smaller scale ---like 1:100th or 1:144th---to cut production costs--- and risks--- while still providing some detail? I don't know the answer for sure but it seems to me that the "savior" of "the hobby" might be a new business plan---possibly adapted from the partwork model involving subscription series sold direct, initially; then in the usual manner, later.
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Old 11-21-2019, 11:21 PM   #13
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

Overall I agree with your assesments FS, but there is one caveat that you have to consider here when it comes to HM, And that is user driven suggestions. Unlike most companies that produce high end collectibles like this, HM likes to get feedback from their community and is willing to take suggestions when it comes to new liveries. 15 years ago this never would have happened when manufacturers like Dragon,Witty and CW were still running the show. They held onto their IP's with an iron grip and would never listen to the collectors when it came to new ideas for molds or liveries. But HM values that kind of user driven content since they know that as long as collectors like us are chomping at the bit for new airplanes (particularly ones that haven't been made before--or made very sparsely) then that will only generate more sales down the line. And in the end that only improves their bottom line, which in turn gives them a larger budget to make new jets in the future. And so far it seems like this model is working and it's why HM has been able to crank out about a dozen jets per month while CW produces maybe one new aircraft every 3 years. And there is still so much ground to cover too. New liveries are added to aircraft with every deployment and I'm sure that one of them are bound to end up on someone's wishlist.
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Old 11-21-2019, 11:39 PM   #14
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Interesting discussion, FS and LFT. I would add that among the post WW2 subjects that remain to be done in the 1:72nd scale are the B-47, B-36, Bear, Badger, many types of large transports, etc. And, of course, going back to the WW2 era, scores of famous or worthy planes have yet to be replicated---SM-79, Betty, PE-2, Hudson, Kingfisher, Piper Cub, C-46, etc.

The problem, of course is the evolution of business plans. The one plane at a time model long used by HM, Corgi and many others now departed---Gemini, Dragon, C1, etc. works mainly when you avoid risks and go with usual subjects. Since it takes something like five 1000- run schemes to just break even on a new tooling, this is why the one plane at a time folks have run out of subjects that are worth tackling. On the other hand, the low priced, modest quality partwork lines which begin with a "publisher" like Altaya, Hachette, DeAgostini, etc. offering two-year subscriptions featuring 40-80 models distributed in bi-weekly or slightly longer doses---is a business plan which might still work to give us many of the planes we would like to see. Here, it's the series as a whole that makes the sale, coupled with low--"bargain" pricing. Later, with the mold costs thus amortized, the manufacturer reissues the models---often with new schemes---via normal distribution channels---as opposed to going direct to the customer which is what the publishers do----and real profits can be made. The latest example of this is the Oxford WW2 series, which started as a publisher's line ( Atlas Editions ).

The question is, will there be enough support for an improved quality---but no frills---subscription series of , say, 1:72nd scale WW2 "mediums" where the initial sale is for 50-60 models spread out for two to three years---not one at a time? The same question applies for other thematic lines in the same scale--float planes, observation planes, cargo/troop carriers, etc. or post WW2 biggies---B-47, Bear, etc---- perhaps in a smaller scale ---like 1:100th or 1:144th---to cut production costs--- and risks--- while still providing some detail? I don't know the answer for sure but it seems to me that the "savior" of "the hobby" might be a new business plan---possibly adapted from the partwork model involving subscription series sold direct, initially; then in the usual manner, later.
It is an interesting thread,..notwithstanding the bunfight and the cerebral nature of it,..apparently a bit tough for another (unsurprisingly).

Mate,.....I have been saying for years,...since the HM 1:144 B24, that HM should have went post war biggies in 1:144. Other than Corgi, HM would have had this theme to themselves.

TU95, TU16, B58, B1B, B47, KC135A, TU22, TU22M, M4,...you name it, the list was huge and the line/theme would have endured for years.

The Magazine subject is interesting too. The DeAgostini series was the gift that kept giving and it still goes on. But, many of those types are a niche interest and once they have all been done what is the chance of success for multiple releases from many of the toolings?

I sense the Magazine issue,..particularly WW2 is perhaps losing some steam. This is based on lack of multiple releases and the limited scope of the magazine models. I could not believe it when Japanese twins came out,...…….but that seems to be the limit, size wise. They have inherent constraints. Just wondering if they are starting to butt up to those constraints.

Finally,..Italian exotica (as I call them). One or two toolings might make a successs at multiple release. The beautiful SM79 and of course the MC202/05, G50, C200 or G55 all have spectacular schemes and served multiple theatres. But,...due to their spectacular nature and country of origin that means HM would have to improve its scheme/mottling techniques and/or Corgi would have to shed its myopic focus on Blighty stuff.

Finally,...….what about new manufacturing technique?? You and I have been talking about that for how long??
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:52 AM   #15
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

Quote:
Unlike most companies that produce high end collectibles like this, HM likes to get feedback from their community and is willing to take suggestions when it comes to new liveries.
The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.-5dab64e9-09cd-4809-8b41-56aad56e4156.jpeg

Clearly they do not like feedback anymore. As for high end collectibles, it's more like high end toys at best with comedy of errors they make these days.

I give it at most another year till there is zero interest in this hobby. 400 units for what used to be 1000-1500 is a sign of the times. Maybe the hoarders will keep it going abit longer but not much more then that.
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:59 AM   #16
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Attachment 329472

Clearly they do not like feedback anymore.
Not true. Simple as that.

The rest of the post is based on no evidence or even reasoned opinion.
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Old 11-22-2019, 03:54 AM   #17
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Not true. Simple as that.

The rest of the post is based on no evidence or even reasoned opinion.



If you are referring to my post, then yes I do have evidence that HM is listening to their fans. Both this livery


https://hobbymastercollector.com/HA5218.html


and this


https://hobbymastercollector.com/HA4517.html


are examples that I personally suggested to William. Case closed.
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Old 11-22-2019, 04:56 AM   #18
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

Not sure if HM is totally dismissing feedback, but I am sure suggestions are being considered and acted on in cases of "popular" schemes - popular in the sense as HM deems it will hopefully sell and be profitable. No one really knows the state of diecast manufacturing. Case in point, we discuss much about HM in terms of 1/72, but can you say that's totally their bread and butter? Their product line is much more than planes, is it not? To say any business is hitting the skids is a stretch unless you have personally seen the businesses books and know their profit and loss. It's a good debate for sure. A more likely company to bite the dust would be a company that is not diverse with a broad portfolio, ((but not so broad they cannot meet demand and to expedite quality suffers)) of product lines in which if one segment ends, life can still continue, albeit at a diminished profitability. Who else has a diverse portfolio? Herpa....yes, Corgi......yes. Falcon Models planes only.....gone, witty wings planes only....gone, Calibre Wings 1/72 planes only....may not survive.

Back to HM...I do believe schemes they produce are partially collector driven. Can't say the same for other MFG's.

IMO

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Old 11-22-2019, 05:22 AM   #19
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Overall I agree with your assesments FS, but there is one caveat that you have to consider here when it comes to HM, And that is user driven suggestions.
This is an interesting idea. However, I wonder how much "user suggestions" contribute to profitability?

Or, to put it another way, for every good suggestion made with good intentions for overall profitability for HM, there's somebody making a suggestion that is basically his personal pet interest with limited massmarket appeal.

Not to toot my own horn, but I've suggested 5-6 liveries to HM over the years now which they have come to make, at least two of which were not on their radar at all. The one that comes to mind the most is P-51D "Passion Wagon" which I suggested because I thought it was a) a great livery b) split-runnable and c) would sell well. I dont have sales figures, but "Passion Wagon" didn't seem to stick around very long and I never saw it discounted too seriously, so I think that means "mission accomplished."

To be clear, when I mean "the end of the hobby", I didn't mean "the end o HM." HM clearly has an engine that it can use - between re-runinng popular liveries and doing repaints of toolings that are already paid for, they can continue to squeeze out releases that will appeal to somebody. After all, every year there are people just getting into the hobby who will be willing to spend money fro liveries that they cannot find in the secondary market. But by the "end of the hobby" I mean the end of this sense that there's a lot of innovation is going on. For example, in plastic models right now, there is an ocean of difference between newly tooled kits and older stuff - so, hobbyists (for example at the recent telford show) can always look for something that they haven't seen before which will have that 'wow' factor - not just a rebox of an existing thing, which is what we're basically talking about. It's that wow, not the reboxing, that drives the hobby.
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Old 11-22-2019, 05:32 AM   #20
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Mate,.....I have been saying for years,...since the HM 1:144 B24, that HM should have went post war biggies in 1:144. Other than Corgi, HM would have had this theme to themselves.
Sorry its taken be a bit of time to catch up here. Are you sure that's right? In metal, we have the 1/144 magazine releases which i guesss were not great, but still there. However, more than that, we right now have access to an IMMENSE collection of superb 1/144 aircraft - japanese plastic stuff. I am not sure if you are familiar, but names include (and this has been a while, so bear with me here)0

Wing Club
Big Bird
J-Wings

and many more

https://auctions.yahoo.co.jp/search/...=0&y=0&fixed=0

Check that link for a sense of what's available in japan. These generally require minimal assembly and, while they are plastic and quality varies a bit from brand to brand, an IMMENSE amount of aircraft are avaialble in 1/144 and being tampo printed the stuff tends to be very good - generally far better than 99% of 1/144 kit builders could do.

I mean, check this out:

https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/j545210475

that's an MBR 2-bis. Hard to find that in any scale much less nicely finished as here.

Quote:
TU95, TU16, B58, B1B, B47, KC135A, TU22, TU22M, M4,...you name it, the list was huge and the line/theme would have endured for years.
most or all of these are available in high quality from japanese 1/44 producers.

additionally, in japan you can get some stunning finished 1/144 models at higher cost:

https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/392286689
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Old 11-22-2019, 05:42 AM   #21
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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There has been plenty of discussion regarding the US/China trade dispute. Although I did not initially quite understand it, its now clear to me that its the single issue is have a big effect on the Hobby. Then there is BREXIT.
F-16 is probably a good idea for a 1/48 release. But, remember, FM was flooded with em before they went under.

Brexit? Yes, britain is a big market and yes, that act of collective (17.4 million) self-immolation is idiotic. But if/when brexit finally goes through, this will only affect the diecast market in 2 ways that I can see:

1. UK importers will have higher transaction costs selling into the rest of europe
2. Depending on how things go, the pound will end up somewhere between 1.15 USD and 1.45 USD. A swing to be sure, but not so much as to move a whole industry globally.

I suspect that the market has largely priced brexit into the exchange rate already with the announcement of elections which the conservatives are likely to win. This will result in a brexit similar to the idiotic deal that the amoral showman johnson has "negotiated" and so the pound rising to about 134 after his election and then settling back down to around the current 128-129 as the reality of britain's lack of bargaining power and experience in further trade negotiations kicks in. it could fall further if scotland leaves, as it well should.

the bigger macroeconomic issue may be a recession in china. while this may make labour a bit cheaper, it will also likely mean a further cutback on lending by banks, which would critically affect smaller diecast producers without a steady income stream.

i dont think the US trade sanctions on china matter that much for diecast. i think the key thing in the usa is that unlike the UK Gary, Taiwain and Japan with their retailers, and Canada with its cheerleaders, US retailers have not really driven HM all that hard.
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Old 11-22-2019, 12:40 PM   #22
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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............. A more likely company to bite the dust would be a company that is not diverse with a broad portfolio, ((but not so broad they cannot meet demand and to expedite quality suffers)) of product lines in which if one segment ends, life can still continue, albeit at a diminished profitability. Who else has a diverse portfolio? ............
I would be remiss if I didn't include this diverse portfolio company......Franklin Mint (FM) who has been around long before taking on 1:100's and 1:48's, and who still exists after no longer carrying those particular FM branded scales.

https://www.franklinmint.com/dept/pl...4_83407_100833

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Old 11-22-2019, 05:56 PM   #23
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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If you are referring to my post, then yes I do have evidence that HM is listening to their fans. Both this livery

https://hobbymastercollector.com/HA5218.html

and this

https://hobbymastercollector.com/HA4517.html

are examples that I personally suggested to William. Case closed.
Not specifically you mate (although certainly one of the lads I am referring too),...just the plethora of collectors who speak to William regularly and get on fine with him and occasionally get some wins.

They certainly don't air their laundry like the example above when they don't get their own way. Bearing in mind there is history to the above.
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Old 11-22-2019, 06:03 PM   #24
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Originally Posted by FortunateSon View Post
Sorry its taken be a bit of time to catch up here. Are you sure that's right? In metal, we have the 1/144 magazine releases which i guesss were not great, but still there. However, more than that, we right now have access to an IMMENSE collection of superb 1/144 aircraft - japanese plastic stuff. I am not sure if you are familiar, but names include (and this has been a while, so bear with me here)0

Wing Club
Big Bird
J-Wings

and many more

https://auctions.yahoo.co.jp/search/...=0&y=0&fixed=0

Check that link for a sense of what's available in japan. These generally require minimal assembly and, while they are plastic and quality varies a bit from brand to brand, an IMMENSE amount of aircraft are avaialble in 1/144 and being tampo printed the stuff tends to be very good - generally far better than 99% of 1/144 kit builders could do.

I mean, check this out:

https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/j545210475

that's an MBR 2-bis. Hard to find that in any scale much less nicely finished as here.



most or all of these are available in high quality from japanese 1/44 producers.

additionally, in japan you can get some stunning finished 1/144 models at higher cost:

https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/392286689
I'm sorry but I went through both links and 10 pages (then I gave up) of the second link and I did not see any of the aircraft I have mentioned. There is a couple Amercom V Bombers,....but I did not even mention those.

I am talking about post war/Cold War Bombers and bigges. I made no mention of P3s (or P2s for that matter, which are both rendered beautifully in 1:144 by Japanese manufacturers).

I'm not quite sure what you are referring too?

I forgot to add the B1 as well. Like the TU95, only one has been released in 1:144, both by Atlas.
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Old 11-22-2019, 06:08 PM   #25
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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Originally Posted by FortunateSon View Post
F-16 is probably a good idea for a 1/48 release. But, remember, FM was flooded with em before they went under.

Brexit? Yes, britain is a big market and yes, that act of collective (17.4 million) self-immolation is idiotic. But if/when brexit finally goes through, this will only affect the diecast market in 2 ways that I can see:

1. UK importers will have higher transaction costs selling into the rest of europe
2. Depending on how things go, the pound will end up somewhere between 1.15 USD and 1.45 USD. A swing to be sure, but not so much as to move a whole industry globally.

I suspect that the market has largely priced brexit into the exchange rate already with the announcement of elections which the conservatives are likely to win. This will result in a brexit similar to the idiotic deal that the amoral showman johnson has "negotiated" and so the pound rising to about 134 after his election and then settling back down to around the current 128-129 as the reality of britain's lack of bargaining power and experience in further trade negotiations kicks in. it could fall further if scotland leaves, as it well should.

the bigger macroeconomic issue may be a recession in china. while this may make labour a bit cheaper, it will also likely mean a further cutback on lending by banks, which would critically affect smaller diecast producers without a steady income stream.

i dont think the US trade sanctions on china matter that much for diecast. i think the key thing in the usa is that unlike the UK Gary, Taiwain and Japan with their retailers, and Canada with its cheerleaders, US retailers have not really driven HM all that hard.
The problem with BREXIT,..is not the exit itself. The lack of certainty and therefore market uncertainty is due to the process being dragged out over two painful years.

Once the dust settles and the new rules/trade pacts are in place, the market will adapt, as it usually does.

Not the sanctions,...the trade war in general and the possible long term consequences if they don't sort of out,...you have given one example.
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Old 11-23-2019, 05:03 AM   #26
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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The problem with BREXIT,..is not the exit itself. The lack of certainty and therefore market uncertainty is due to the process being dragged out over two painful years.

Once the dust settles and the new rules/trade pacts are in place, the market will adapt, as it usually does.
umm, I think you're overstating it. I live (part of the time) in britain and I study brexit intensely. The complete range of possible outcomes of brexit (including everything from a suspension of article 50 through a chaotic 'no deal' brexit) really don't have material affect on consumers or the industry in general. They may affect how many models gary brings in and at what price, but this is just a small part of the total picture. there's no doubt amongst serious people that brexit will be very harmful to the british economy overall, but a lot of that has already been priced in to the market and to exchange rates.

If you mean "global instability in general is coming", of which brexit is just one part, then i'm i'n greater agreement. Hong Kong instability probably has a lot more to do with things at the moment than brexit. in fact, as hobbyists, the one thing we can be grateful to trump's amoral lethargy that he hasn't taken any sort of principled stance against china in support of hong kong's pro-democracy movement. that would move markets significantly.
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Old 11-23-2019, 05:08 AM   #27
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Default Re: The "Obvious" list and the end of the hobby.

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I forgot to add the B1 as well. Like the TU95, only one has been released in 1:144, both by Atlas.
The current sales on yahoo japan, like those on ebay usa, typically only reflect recent releases. I dont know the full range of stuff available in 1/144 (i dont really collect anything smaller than 1/72). My point was that the range of things available from japanese "tampoed plastic" releases is fairly extensive but indeed might not extend to some of the very large aircraft.
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