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Old 05-02-2019, 10:17 AM   #51 (permalink)
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Bad job by DeA on the Nate. Note the crazy angle of the wings and the incorrect location of the antenna---should be offset to the right. And that scheme---awful:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:18 AM   #52 (permalink)
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So, I carefully bent the wings into the proper position, drilled a new hole for the antenna and came up with this code 3:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:21 AM   #53 (permalink)
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Here's DeA's Tojo. Not at all bad--except they used the underwing fuel tanks for the Frank---too large---not those that were used by the Oscar, which were the correct size:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:21 AM   #54 (permalink)
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One of several Tojo code 3s:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:23 AM   #55 (permalink)
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A DeA Jake---again, not at all bad:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:24 AM   #56 (permalink)
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A little chipping helps some:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:26 AM   #57 (permalink)
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The DeA Pete. Another stumble with those thick beams posing as "rigging":
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:27 AM   #58 (permalink)
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DeA's Shinden---pretty good:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:28 AM   #59 (permalink)
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Dea's Judy---the green is too dark but otherwise a decent replica for this type of series:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:29 AM   #60 (permalink)
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Finally a DeA Val---I show this as it's the first Val done by IXO. Again, a fairly decent rendition:
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:47 AM   #61 (permalink)
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But i find Corgi stucked with their moulds... any new moulds !

If no innovation by new mould... Corgi will crash
Actually Hobby Master wouldn't have existed if it weren't for Corgi's failure in the US market. So Corgi aren't strangers at failing to understand what collectors worldwide want.

Then things got worse once Hornby took over, I think that's when quality started to slip and the schemes became very limited to a handful of nations. Sometimes it's easy to forget they did jets and models for anyone other then UK/US/zGermans.

So from one company's failure, HM was born. More shocking is the fact even HM was initially poo pooed in the UK market. This hobby could have easily started to slide more then 10 years ago if things played out differently.
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Old 05-02-2019, 12:59 PM   #62 (permalink)
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Looking at Epap's Code-3 projects, I had a nifty idea (which no manu in their right mind would endorse but what the heck) …

Why couldn't Corgi or Hobby Master or any number of diecast manus issue models minus camouflage jobs and tampo emblems but sprayed in unadorned light primer gray instead for the Code-3 market? Meaning, HM could take, say, a hundred unpainted B5N2 Type 97 Kates off their assembly line, paint them with primer gray, throw them in boxes, and call them good? Given the opportunity to paint and render these models exactly the way they wish, Code-3 aficionados might go crazy over them. The models would be virtual canvases.

Of course, Hobby Master, et al., would need to sell these models at a reduced price, given their rudimentary, no-frills scheme. And, they might consider including decals and illustrations of possible liveries. But here's a chance to tap into a subset of collectors who joy in painting their models.

Why not?
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Old 05-02-2019, 01:57 PM   #63 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Richtofen888 View Post
Of course, Hobby Master, et al., would need to sell these models at a reduced price, given their rudimentary, no-frills scheme. And, they might consider including decals and illustrations of possible liveries. But here's a chance to tap into a subset of collectors who joy in painting their models.

Why not?
why not? for the same reason that porsche doesnt sell build your own versions. it decreases the perceive value of their brand and cannibalizes from their own customer base. hm's foray into assembly kits (hellcat, stuka, fuel bowser) was a disaster.

and while i have a lot of respect for epap's code3 skills and hobby, sorry, but to me those old tired ixo like aircraft aren't even remotely close to corgi or hm 1/48 standards. i have most of those japanese models as i said, in a box somewhere and they are basically worth the three for a tenner. but, i've move d on to well built 1/48 kits for such subjects. just bought a judy in japan actually:

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Old 05-03-2019, 01:41 AM   #64 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Richtofen888 View Post
Looking at Epap's Code-3 projects, I had a nifty idea (which no manu in their right mind would endorse but what the heck) …

Why couldn't Corgi or Hobby Master or any number of diecast manus issue models minus camouflage jobs and tampo emblems but sprayed in unadorned light primer gray instead for the Code-3 market? Meaning, HM could take, say, a hundred unpainted B5N2 Type 97 Kates off their assembly line, paint them with primer gray, throw them in boxes, and call them good? Given the opportunity to paint and render these models exactly the way they wish, Code-3 aficionados might go crazy over them. The models would be virtual canvases.

Of course, Hobby Master, et al., would need to sell these models at a reduced price, given their rudimentary, no-frills scheme. And, they might consider including decals and illustrations of possible liveries. But here's a chance to tap into a subset of collectors who joy in painting their models.

Why not?
Here's a thread I posted long ago roughly along the same lines...it's about manu's selling blanks....

The collector mindset may or may not have changed since the time of these posts....

BB

https://www.diecastaircraftforum.com...-3ing-etc.html
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:16 AM   #65 (permalink)
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why not? for the same reason that porsche doesnt sell build your own versions. it decreases the perceive value of their brand and cannibalizes from their own customer base. hm's foray into assembly kits (hellcat, stuka, fuel bowser) was a disaster.

and while i have a lot of respect for epap's code3 skills and hobby, sorry, but to me those old tired ixo like aircraft aren't even remotely close to corgi or hm 1/48 standards. i have most of those japanese models as i said, in a box somewhere and they are basically worth the three for a tenner. but, i've move d on to well built 1/48 kits for such subjects. just bought a judy in japan actually:

Yeah,...its a beauty and I have been known to collect a plastic model or two to fill gaps myself.

The point being though the magazine models,....and their terrific diversity, is one of the reasons why 1:72 WW2 single engine fighters from the mainstream manufacturers is struggling these days.
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:17 AM   #66 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Richtofen888 View Post
Looking at Epap's Code-3 projects, I had a nifty idea (which no manu in their right mind would endorse but what the heck) …

Why couldn't Corgi or Hobby Master or any number of diecast manus issue models minus camouflage jobs and tampo emblems but sprayed in unadorned light primer gray instead for the Code-3 market? Meaning, HM could take, say, a hundred unpainted B5N2 Type 97 Kates off their assembly line, paint them with primer gray, throw them in boxes, and call them good? Given the opportunity to paint and render these models exactly the way they wish, Code-3 aficionados might go crazy over them. The models would be virtual canvases.

Of course, Hobby Master, et al., would need to sell these models at a reduced price, given their rudimentary, no-frills scheme. And, they might consider including decals and illustrations of possible liveries. But here's a chance to tap into a subset of collectors who joy in painting their models.

Why not?
HM did give a go mate. Although they needed some assembly too. It did not catch on I am afraid.

https://www.hobbymastercollector.com...lkitindex.html

There was another company who gave it a go too. MACKIT?? Something like that? 1:48 if I recall. There are some wonderful examples (again over in that other place) from one of the members there who gave them a go.
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:19 AM   #67 (permalink)
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LFT, I'm glad you noted the deAgostini Japanese series now playing out and available via Hobby Link Japan and eBay sources. This is a perfect example of how the partwork lines can add many "unusual subjects" to a collectionj while affording enough quality to allow for decent code 3 work and, in many cases the models can be accepted in "as is" form. Since this is an IXO-based line most of the planes in the series are based on existing IXO molds and often use the same schemes with the same errors and those awful black inked panel lines. Nevertheless quite a few now toolings---all of Japanese planes---- were included. Here are some examples. First, a Rufe:
Starring again I see Edward. Always good to see your work mate.
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Old 05-04-2019, 06:02 AM   #68 (permalink)
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Another negative point with the hobby today is a lack of brick & mortar model shops in many areas where there used to be many, or at least a few. Here in the South East of England there are very few, & none in Essex- & there used to be many in Essex. There are model shops, but none stock diecast anymore. & there's the rub- I won't buy without seeing the model in the metal first, pics online are not good enough. & I've no means of doing that anymore other than at toy fairs. & buying unseen or based on pics & then sending it back if I don't like it won't do, either- not at £7 return postage every time I send one back.

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Old 05-04-2019, 06:37 AM   #69 (permalink)
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england still has a lot of options compared to italy, the model shops with a decent offer of diecast models are almost extinct in a lot of areas and the online shops are very very few
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Old 05-04-2019, 08:56 AM   #70 (permalink)
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I was thinking …

If you had a magic wand and could bonk our hobby on the head and change just one thing to improve it, what would that be? I'm not talking about making new models appear, abracadabra, in your display case but something reasonable and doable that would benefit military diecast collectors everywhere.

Here's what I'd change …

I'd get manus to pay far more heed to collectors' desires and suggestions. Corgi especially comes to mind, who could take a page from Hobby Master's (admittedly not entirely perfect) playbook and pay attention to its clientele.
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Old 05-04-2019, 09:54 AM   #71 (permalink)
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I was thinking …

If you had a magic wand and could bonk our hobby on the head and change just one thing to improve it, what would that be? I'm not talking about making new models appear, abracadabra, in your display case but something reasonable and doable that would benefit military diecast collectors everywhere.

Here's what I'd change …

I'd get manus to pay far more heed to collectors' desires and suggestions. Corgi especially comes to mind, who could take a page from Hobby Master's (admittedly not entirely perfect) playbook and pay attention to its clientele.
I'd make all the local diecast shops come back.
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Old 05-04-2019, 10:38 AM   #72 (permalink)
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Disagree on the Corgi stagnating front. The new management seem to have got to grips with the AA side of things regarding run size and dumping models onto the market. Very rarely do you see models marked down 60-70% like you use to. I thought I'd wait for the Maximowitz 190 to come down in price, it in the end paid £35 for it. Ok so that's marked down from £50, but nothing like the dumps we had before. They've produced models that people have been asking for, even on old moulds and produced crackers like the Sunderland recently. I think they'll carry on with more of the same and occasionally dropping in the odd new mould. It might not be exciting, it might not cater for markets outside of the UK/RAF that much, but they can build on a stable platform and go from there.
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Old 05-04-2019, 08:35 PM   #73 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Richtofen888 View Post
I was thinking …

If you had a magic wand and could bonk our hobby on the head and change just one thing to improve it, what would that be? I'm not talking about making new models appear, abracadabra, in your display case but something reasonable and doable that would benefit military diecast collectors everywhere.

Here's what I'd change …

I'd get manus to pay far more heed to collectors' desires and suggestions. Corgi especially comes to mind, who could take a page from Hobby Master's (admittedly not entirely perfect) playbook and pay attention to its clientele.

What the Hobby desperately needs is a more modern and technologically advanced method of manufacturing.
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Old 05-04-2019, 09:11 PM   #74 (permalink)
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Disagree on the Corgi stagnating front. The new management seem to have got to grips with the AA side of things regarding run size and dumping models onto the market. Very rarely do you see models marked down 60-70% like you use to. I thought I'd wait for the Maximowitz 190 to come down in price, it in the end paid £35 for it. Ok so that's marked down from £50, but nothing like the dumps we had before. They've produced models that people have been asking for, even on old moulds and produced crackers like the Sunderland recently. I think they'll carry on with more of the same and occasionally dropping in the odd new mould. It might not be exciting, it might not cater for markets outside of the UK/RAF that much, but they can build on a stable platform and go from there.
In principle I agree,...how the decision to go to one announcement a year, in my view, is a very poor one indeed.

It would not matter how good the announcement was,...within a couple of months it would be snowed under with repetitive HM and a plethora of other manufacturers announcements. Between the announcements there is too much conversation on how late Corgi releases are.

I have a feeling this, is in part, driven by factory considerations,....but I still think this does not help Corgi AA.

But I certainly agree Corgi are not stagnating. The 1:48 F4 is proof of that. Not sure about the Beau tooling,....I think most of us are scratching our head over that one??
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Old 05-04-2019, 10:44 PM   #75 (permalink)
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england still has a lot of options compared to italy, the model shops with a decent offer of diecast models are almost extinct in a lot of areas and the online shops are very very few
does italy still suffer from an utterly broken postal system as many ebay adverts seem to suggest it does? in a lot of ebay listings we still see "won't post to north korea or italy" type messages.
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Old 05-04-2019, 11:41 PM   #76 (permalink)
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magic wand item;

packaging that collapses when empty.
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Old 05-05-2019, 06:49 PM   #77 (permalink)
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magic wand item;

packaging that collapses when empty.
2 more:


Hobbymaster to return to their original mission statement of being better (like they were at first) but cheaper than their rivals (ie Corgi).


Droopy props on otherwise excellent old Corgi moulds to tighten up.
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Old 05-06-2019, 02:20 AM   #78 (permalink)
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Hobbymaster to return to their original mission statement of being better (like they were at first) but cheaper than their rivals (ie Corgi.
This would be great but not necessarily have to cheaper. The problem now is the quality doesn't justify the price. Or maybe to get that level of quality the price would have to go up considerably and that would price themselves out of the market. But it kinda has already.

What I'd like to see:

Foam cradles used for all models so that there is less man handling when packaging and also easier to remove from the box while still being very secure.

Production of single piece moulds to avoid fuselage seams. I understand they don't do this because it might limit the life of the mould by not being able to offer different variants but I would like to see manus commit to selecting a particular variant and doing it well rather then doing none well at all.
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Old 05-10-2019, 01:27 AM   #79 (permalink)
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Here's my take on it, I like to look at this from a business point of view rather than as a collector.

Most companies involved in this are fairly small and so is the related revenue. Corgi for example only accounts for a few million pounds of revenue for Hornby. And Hornby itself has been loosing money for years, despite the fact they should enjoy economies of scale and brand recognition compared to most other manufacturers who are much smaller.

HM is another strange case; I don't think they are very big, but they are pumping out new tooling at an astronomical rate. I seem to remember it takes them 10 releases to break even on tooling, so I can't understand how they would be turning a profit with so much investment going on. This is coupled to the fact that the manufacturing costs keep rising, so they either have to raise prices, eat the inflation or move production, all of which hurt the bottom line.

And as many of you have pointed out, it's a fairly stable, but niche market. I do think new collectors are coming in (I know plenty of young plane nuts in pilot training), but only at about the same rate as the old ones are saturated or going out.

And then there is the issue of limited production runs. The most popular models increase in value exponentially; the Dragon Apollo models are a good example. I picked most up at reasonable rates a few years ago, but prices have now absolutely skyrocketed. Dragon themselves have never seen the benefit of this. At the same time, there is Dragon inventory from over 10 years ago that still hasn't been sold.

I don't know the answer here; there are always going to be releases that generate huge or little interest, but I don't think the answer is to produce a 15,000 model production run of a "Showtime 100" release either.

However, if the companies themselves made more off their popular releases, it would be an incentive for them and others to make more of them.
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Old 05-10-2019, 10:27 AM   #80 (permalink)
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I'm not sure if anybody is keeping up with the current trade war between America and China, both nations squaring off this morning after President Trump raised tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese products including electronics, clothes and toys (which includes diecast models).

To say this will adversely affect prices on newly issued military diecast models from China to America is a little like Chicken Little (or Henny Penny or Chicken Licken, take your pick) racing around the barnyard squawking "The sky is falling!" But it does give one pause. Worst case scenario: If you live in the USA and haven't already preordered any number of Corgi or Hobby Master or Calibre Wings models (or others), you'll likely have to fork out more bucks for these goodies. It remains to be seen what impact the tariff will have on everyone else worldwide (possibly none), but this doesn't bode well for the hobby in general, especially if the trade ward continues for a long time and/or ramps up.

So what say ye, fellow collectors. Are we in for a roller coaster ride diecast model wise, or will this brouhaha blow away in a few days and Chicken Little can return to her roost?
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Old 05-10-2019, 02:42 PM   #81 (permalink)
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China needs a dose of reality. Unfortunately we'll have some bumps in the short term.

I thought it telling that Schumer told Trump to hang tough on the tariffs.
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Old 05-10-2019, 02:53 PM   #82 (permalink)
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I'm hoping the bluster will just be short term. I have feeling there is too much money and influence on the sidelines here in the U.S. to allow a trade war to last very long. Diecast prices already aren't cheap but might mean a few less our purchased here. Who knows if that will dent the bottom line worldwide for manus.

I have enjoyed this thread. I will not wring my hands worrying about which manu might fold. We've already endured the shutting down of other lines and just need to appreciate what's left. I'm hoping that some enterprising soul will see there is demand out there for certain models which have not been made before or have been made long ago and decide to press forward with models for us to enjoy. But I'm not a market or business analyst to break down the profit margins to determine what will sell or not. Regardless of what happens to our hobby, I'll continue to buy what I like and enjoy what I already have.
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Old 05-12-2019, 10:34 PM   #83 (permalink)
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I'm hoping the bluster will just be short term. I have feeling there is too much money and influence on the sidelines here in the U.S. to allow a trade war to last very long. Diecast prices already aren't cheap but might mean a few less our purchased here. Who knows if that will dent the bottom line worldwide for manus.

I have enjoyed this thread. I will not wring my hands worrying about which manu might fold. We've already endured the shutting down of other lines and just need to appreciate what's left. I'm hoping that some enterprising soul will see there is demand out there for certain models which have not been made before or have been made long ago and decide to press forward with models for us to enjoy. But I'm not a market or business analyst to break down the profit margins to determine what will sell or not. Regardless of what happens to our hobby, I'll continue to buy what I like and enjoy what I already have.
Yeah,...I am a bit the same. I always have had the view,...if one manufacturer goes down,...then what's next? I am lucky though,...….there isn't a theme that I don't appreciate.

Although,....I am partial to WW2.

It has been thus for nearly 20 years. Although if truth be told,......I am kinda thrilled Corgi has hung in there,...……….lucky WW2 is my favourite themes.
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Old 05-13-2019, 10:02 AM   #84 (permalink)
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I have a question for everybody concerning the superheating trade war between China and America …

Worst case scenario: If tariff fees bounce American diecast model prices an additional 25%, how will that impact the hobby world wide?

This is pure conjecture, and frankly I don't see it happening; but here's one possible story line: Should price tags ride the proverbial elevator several floors higher, American collectors with limited budgets will further tighten their belts, order even fewer models, or quit altogether. If enough collectors follow suit, the resulting shortfall will send many an American vendor/seller to the emergency room. Far fewer sales would ultimately hurt Chinese model manus who lean on American revenue to stay solvent; and though they wouldn't smash headlong into fiscal oblivion instantly, these businesses would eventually vanish. And if that happens, the hobby as we know it will cease to exist.

This is all a happy little foray into gloom and doom, but America's and China's trade dust-up is disturbingly beginning to look like an old timey Western shootout. A bystander like diecast models could easily catch a ricochet bullet and find itself on life support—or worse.
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Old 05-13-2019, 11:58 AM   #85 (permalink)
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I was just thinking about the trade war between US and China...I turned to page 2 to reply and you got it covered. I think this will take some buyers out of the market, but not all. I, like you, have been collecting for years and have been unloading most of my collection over the past 5 years to get the money out of them before they turn into 50 cent yard sale items! Re-releases has killed some of the value of the older models and the market seems to be flooded each month with product. I still collect, but not as much as I used to. I am down to about 500 planes from about 5,000 or so. Less is more!

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Old 05-15-2019, 11:25 AM   #86 (permalink)
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One last thought about this Chinese-American tariff imbroglio before it actually hits the fan …

According to one leading American military diecast vendor, unless these two nations miraculously settle their differences soon, diecast models will definitely take a hit. Said models fall under section 9503.00.00 of the proposed new rules; and if this tariff passes hearings on June 17th, the levy will go into effect as early as June 24th. Which means that, according to this vendor, Chinese manus will doubtless revise their production schedules owing to reduced or outright cancelled orders. And despite President Trump's claim that the Chinese alone will pay these tariffs, US importers will, in fact, bear the added costs, who will then pass them, through distributors, to consumers (American collectors).

Favorably, manus that moved their operations to Bangladesh, Vietnam, and other Pacific Rim countries in the last few years won't be affected. Others didn't, however, and it's these that cause sore concern.

Many observers believe that the Chinese will delay action until after the 2020 presidential election hoping a political change will favor their position. Which, if so, means American collectors will pay through the nose for Chinese models for at least a year and a half. And presumably during that time a sizeable portion will quit collecting altogether.

I don't know about you, but I believe this bodes no good thing for the hobby. For those living outside the USA who presume this tariff won't affect them, think again. If this rolls the way I think it will, diecast collecting, as we know it, will change forever.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:24 PM   #87 (permalink)
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Uh Oh! I guess it will boost sales for current items on Ebay and at retailers, but for new stuff after that date, if prices increase based on your info, then sales will most likely be stagnant! I remember in the mid 90s when a 1:400 scale 747 was about $26.95 retail and they are over $50 now! I bought a 26000 and 27000 AF1 from Don Kaylor at an airliner show in 2003 for $75 each and a similar model today is about $119 and above! If it goes higher I will drastically reduce (even further than I have) purchases and may cut them out altogether!
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Old 05-16-2019, 05:47 PM   #88 (permalink)
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I recognize a myriad of these observations, having been involved in collecting WWII 1:72, commercial 1:144, & 1:200 since around 2001 or so.

I lost interest when the cost of shipping went stupid. Until this year, I hadn't added anything to my collections for around 6-7 years. But what I did buy, BOTH of them, pretty much brought my modest collections to a pleasant close. What were they you ask?!

• Corgi 1:72 Mosquito (Parry's—been after Corgi on DAF for that for years). I like it a lot, even with the minor niggles.
• AC200 1:200 Canadian Pacific Airlines DC-8-43. STUNNING!

And now I just periodically hang around the forums. Nice.
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Old 05-20-2019, 08:32 AM   #89 (permalink)
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Perhaps I'm projecting Chicken Little (Henny Penny if you're from Europe) by offering this forewarning, but I advise my fellow American collectors to buy—right now—whatever model[s] they wish to get from Chinese vendors/sellers. We have a month to beat Trump's tariffs: after that, all bets are off.

I can't explain why, but I've got a gut feeling this nonsense will actually go through and leave a lot of us crying in our soup. In fact, I've decided I won't buy new models from China anymore simply because they're already too costly and I refuse to pay more. I'm placing an order for a 1/72 model today that will likely be my last direct purchase from that country.

I'm whipping a dead horse, but this troubling development doesn't bode well for those of us who conduct business with China. Our hobby will survive, but I'm more than sure military diecast collecting will change in ways we don't anticipate.
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Old 05-21-2019, 02:38 AM   #90 (permalink)
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Interesting, I'd say that 1/400 is going through a renaissance at the moment, the additions of ng models, hyjl wings and panda have moved the competition miles ahead. The detailing on some of the ng 757s is competing with 1/200 in my opinion. For years, the quality of 1/400 was mediocre with moulds not really changing and the ones that did like the Gemini/JC wings a320 mould got worse in my opinion.
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Old 05-26-2019, 08:34 PM   #91 (permalink)
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A month ago when this thread was created, I decided to do abit of analysis on sales at a popular retailer to determine what current sales were like. I randomly selected 17 in stock models and noted that stock totalled to an even 100 units. These models included Spooks, Hornets, Flankers and a few other usually very popular moulds for HM. Some models dated as far back as 2017, with the bulk mid to late 2018 and up February of this year. I picked this particular retailer as years ago, stock would literally fly off the shelves and I was quiet surprised that a few of these models were still in stock in rather large quantities.

So after a month, 18 out of the 100 units were sold, 6 out of 17 models saw any movement, with the bulk of the 18 sold coming from 1 usually very popular subject selling 6 units, which I found interesting as this model was instock in large quantities for over 6 months before it started to sell, it's possible there was a restock but still, I had noticed this release sit around for awhile at that number. And it sold more then likely because collectors got bored with what was out and needed a fix.

There was one model that sold out during that time, HA6302B Su-34, it sold 4 units. While the models from 2017 and early 2018 (which account for 18 of the 100 original units) did not sell a single unit.

I see this as sales being down quiet considerably. It could be that most of these models are priced rather high, maybe collectors aren't buying endless duplicates. Also interesting is that most if not all cheaper models like Vipers, Fishbeds and even all those gawd awful Floggers have sold very well at this retailer.

I've also noticed that TFM have started stocking a lot more cheapo Model Power / Postage Stamp Collection models in the last few months, as did the retailer I studied, they started getting some rebranded Amercom models. So maybe there is some validity to the theory magazine / cheapo models are getting popular with price sensitive collectors and taking some of the big manus market share.
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Old 05-27-2019, 11:20 AM   #92 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ukrainian_Falcons View Post

I've also noticed that TFM have started stocking a lot more cheapo Model Power / Postage Stamp Collection models in the last few months, as did the retailer I studied, they started getting some rebranded Amercom models. So maybe there is some validity to the theory magazine / cheapo models are getting popular with price sensitive collectors and taking some of the big manus market share.

Nice Work, UK. This suggests a consumer migration from high-priced to affordable product.

On another note (and I'll hit this subject one more time before I drop it altogether), here's how I see things happening in the good ol' USA once this tariff hits …

Monied American collectors will keep buying no matter how things shake out, though I'm not sure what percentage of buyers they represent (probably not many). Price-sensitive collectors who have heretofore purchased two or more models every one or two months will cut that to one or more models every four to six months. Collectors who purchase fewer than that will likely cut their acquisitions further or quit altogether.

Admittedly, I pulled those numbers out of a hat. But it does illustrate that already pricey models growing even more expensive discourages most ardent collectors, who will, by necessity, reduce his purchases and/or buy cheaper models or quit altogether.

This process will take time, but I truly believe our hobby is in for a rough ride. If this tariff goes through and continues for years, most American vendors will go belly-up. In the meantime, the rest of the diecast world will hurt simply because the loss of American business will necessarily and adversely affect production numbers. Chinese manus will be forced to decrease output, which will reduce their bottom line. Shrink profits enough and they'll eventually shutter their doors.

I don't like to be the bearer of bad news, but I see no other way around this. If anybody has a more sanguine forecast, I'm all ears.
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Old 05-27-2019, 02:24 PM   #93 (permalink)
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On the tariff issue, won't production simply move out of China to some equally squalid country/economy? I've read that Bangladesh has been handling at least some of HM's manufacturing. My REAL concern is that HK will cease to be a convenient portal for Chinese goods, and that the Communists will simply swallow it up.
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Old 05-27-2019, 06:57 PM   #94 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ukrainian_Falcons View Post
A month ago when this thread was created, I decided to do abit of analysis on sales at a popular retailer to determine what current sales were like. I randomly selected 17 in stock models and noted that stock totalled to an even 100 units. These models included Spooks, Hornets, Flankers and a few other usually very popular moulds for HM. Some models dated as far back as 2017, with the bulk mid to late 2018 and up February of this year. I picked this particular retailer as years ago, stock would literally fly off the shelves and I was quiet surprised that a few of these models were still in stock in rather large quantities.

So after a month, 18 out of the 100 units were sold, 6 out of 17 models saw any movement, with the bulk of the 18 sold coming from 1 usually very popular subject selling 6 units, which I found interesting as this model was instock in large quantities for over 6 months before it started to sell, it's possible there was a restock but still, I had noticed this release sit around for awhile at that number. And it sold more then likely because collectors got bored with what was out and needed a fix.

There was one model that sold out during that time, HA6302B Su-34, it sold 4 units. While the models from 2017 and early 2018 (which account for 18 of the 100 original units) did not sell a single unit.

I see this as sales being down quiet considerably. It could be that most of these models are priced rather high, maybe collectors aren't buying endless duplicates. Also interesting is that most if not all cheaper models like Vipers, Fishbeds and even all those gawd awful Floggers have sold very well at this retailer.

I've also noticed that TFM have started stocking a lot more cheapo Model Power / Postage Stamp Collection models in the last few months, as did the retailer I studied, they started getting some rebranded Amercom models. So maybe there is some validity to the theory magazine / cheapo models are getting popular with price sensitive collectors and taking some of the big manus market share.
On-line retailer or brick and mortar and may we know which city and country this retailer resides please?
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Old 05-28-2019, 05:45 AM   #95 (permalink)
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Monied American collectors will keep buying no matter how things shake out, though I'm not sure what percentage of buyers they represent (probably not many). Price-sensitive collectors who have heretofore purchased two or more models every one or two months will cut that to one or more models every four to six months. Collectors who purchase fewer than that will likely cut their acquisitions further or quit altogether.

Admittedly, I pulled those numbers out of a hat. But it does illustrate that already pricey models growing even more expensive discourages most ardent collectors, who will, by necessity, reduce his purchases and/or buy cheaper models or quit altogether.
I reckon this rings true for collectors globally in regards to prices and I'm sure US tariffs with help bump the prices even further for everyone as Chinese manus try to compensate for the added taxes.

I will add this, it seems like models from 2018 to now seem to linger around for a lot longer so the price increases have only just caught up with how willing collectors would put up with it. Manus like HM might absorb it for a short period before drastically increasing prices over a period of time.
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Old 05-28-2019, 01:46 PM   #96 (permalink)
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I hate seeing these prices climb higher and higher for some great models being released. I remember when an A-1 Skyraiders, and F-18's were about $69, and now they're crossing triple digits! The hobby has become more expensive, and exclusive to those with a limited budget, and I look more to second hand markets for models on ebay, and especially damaged ones that nobody wants, but are repairable and I can put my model building skills to use to bring it back to a level of admirable quality.

Nowadays, I can buy a model if I happen to be lucky, have a little extra cash, and if my son isn't wanting a new addition to his wooden train set. I think we have comet sightings that probably occur more often than when i get this sort of chance.

When i do get the opportunity to buy a new model, I have to make a reaaaaaly good choice, and making the selection for the next model to add into my collection is like having a beauty pageant with 20 finalists, and only one will be selected. I got lucky last winter (2018) It is now May 2019, and I am still waiting on my Calibre Wings F-14 VX-4 Vandy One pre-order, which seems to be postponed each month. I always say "you can't rush a good thing."

This upside, to this misfortune is that I get a model i know i really wanted, and you definitely appreciate the ones that you have.

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Old 05-28-2019, 09:01 PM   #97 (permalink)
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When i do get the opportunity to buy a new model, I have to make a reaaaaaly good choice and making the selection for the next model to add into my collection is like having a beauty pageant with 20 finalists, and only one will be selected.

This upside, to this misfortune is that I get a model i know i really wanted, and you definitely appreciate the ones that you have.
It really is like this, even if price is not an issue, it's getting harder to like the schemes that come out. What I find annoying is passing on a model that's good but not the scheme I want, only to never get the scheme I'm after or it ends up being bad. Then it's either go back and pay more for the model I passed on or keep waiting for another scheme I like. HMs Super Hornet is a great example of that.

Defo appreciate the models I have now, can't say there's many I feel like I missed out on from previous years.
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Old 05-30-2019, 04:19 AM   #98 (permalink)
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On-line retailer or brick and mortar and may we know which city and country this retailer resides please?
Oh well. As there is no context on the "popular retailer",...its hard to conclude anything, regarding the current state of the Hobby, based on U_F's analysis, which to be fair, he has given a decent effort.

Some may disagree,...and that OK,..whatever. But context has been,...and always will be,..KING.

It is what it is.
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Old 06-24-2019, 02:37 PM   #99 (permalink)
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We're fast approaching July 1st, the presumed start of Trump's tariff assault on Chinese toys (read: military diecast models), among hundreds of thousands of other goods, $60 billion worth. A slim chance remains that the President will relent at the trade talks come June 28th in Japan, but many politicos say that's not likely. And I'm here to tell ya, if he doesn't ease off, it won't look good for the home team hobby wise.

I conversed with a leading diecast vendor in the USA recently, who confirmed what I've been saying all along: prices will indeed jump on Chinese models. It remains to be seen how badly this will affect American retail sales, but he's sure a sizable portion of his customers will either "minimize" their acquisitions or stop buying altogether. When I asked how badly this will impact his business, he was unusually quiet.

My advice to American collectors is, if you see a model or models you can buy directly from China, now's the time to order. The days of relatively affordable Chinese-made diecast models are about to end if the President has his way. I personally believe that our hobby will shortly turn a corner, and the grim end result, at least in the USA, will be unpreventable.
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Old 06-24-2019, 06:09 PM   #100 (permalink)
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Looks like I'll be buying from ARD or Aviation Megastore or other UK stores from now on....
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