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Old 01-25-2020, 04:16 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default The Wuhan Coronavirus

Most importantly, this is a catastrophe for the citizens and country of China. I was a technician in malarial research, so infectious diseases were my career, and thus my interest in this developing disease. I am no student of geography, and I am not sure which areas of China are most involved with the manufacture of our die cast models. However, I can't help thinking that the hobby will be negatively impacted. Again, this concern is secondary to the tragedy unfolding in China, for which we wish the best possible outcome. Doug

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Old 01-25-2020, 09:37 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Hopefully a cure can be found ASAP.
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Old 01-25-2020, 12:10 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by doug seeley View Post
Most importantly, this is a catastrophe for the citizens and country of China. I was a technician in malarial research, so infectious diseases were my career, and thus my interest in this developing disease. I am no student of geography, and I am not sure which areas of China are most involved with the manufacture of our die cast models. However, I can't help thinking that the hobby will be negatively impacted. Again, this concern is secondary to the tragedy unfolding in China, for which we wish the best possible outcome. Doug

I remember having to take the Dengue shot every year before the rainy season in Ecuador, Boy that thing hurt for days. Yes, hoping for a positive outcome. I remember someone telling me of viruses being mother nature 'shaking the fleas off of her' as in us humans.
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Old 01-25-2020, 01:06 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

I remember traveling all over the world and getting shots, getting sick, and building my immunity to some and not so much to others. Seems like a number of nasty illnesses start in Asia or Africa. Read somewhere years back that those deforesting the Brazilian rain forest are also being exposed to stuff that they are exposing others to.
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Old 01-25-2020, 01:50 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

To keep things in proportion, the Spanish flu in 1918/1919 killed between 20 and 40 million people, more than WW1
The same flu family, albeit different strains, kills between 300.000 And 600.000 every year.
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Old 01-28-2020, 11:32 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by doug seeley View Post
Most importantly, this is a catastrophe for the citizens and country of China. I was a technician in malarial research, so infectious diseases were my career, and thus my interest in this developing disease. I am no student of geography, and I am not sure which areas of China are most involved with the manufacture of our die cast models. However, I can't help thinking that the hobby will be negatively impacted. Again, this concern is secondary to the tragedy unfolding in China, for which we wish the best possible outcome. Doug
Thanks for your concern Doug.
Wuhan, in Hubei province is in central China, about 1 hour flight due west of my factory's location near Hangzhou, Zhejiang province. Anhui province separates us. All of the other diecast factories are in Guangdong province, much further to the south, a 2 hour flight, just near Hong Kong.
I did not return to China this week as planned, nor will I for the foreseeable future. Our factory will remain closed until at least mid February, by government order. Schools and most businesses in the area are also closed.

The US government is operating an evacuation flight out of Changsha today, Hunan province, for all nonessential Americans. Routing is Changsha-Anchorage-Ontario, CA It's a Boeing 757 similar to the ATA 757s used by Military transport command. Aprox 200 seats on the aircraft. Regular citizens can also fly on this flight. I believe they will take Canadians as well.

United is cancelling most of their flights to China for the next 10 days or so; still no news from American & Delta.

I was there during SARS some 17 years ago; this is much worse. I share in your prayers Doug!
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Old 01-29-2020, 04:13 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

Aye BA have just suspended flights to China. I hope they find a vaccine as quickly as possible, must be very scary for those in Wuhan and the surrounding areas. You have to look on be amazed at the whole mobilisation of the Chinese state though. Once the seriousness of the situation became apparent they starting building two dedicated hospitals in Wuhan, expected to be up and running in two weeks. Astonishing.
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Old 01-29-2020, 12:28 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by doug seeley View Post
Most importantly, this is a catastrophe for the citizens and country of China. I was a technician in malarial research, so infectious diseases were my career, and thus my interest in this developing disease. I am no student of geography, and I am not sure which areas of China are most involved with the manufacture of our die cast models. However, I can't help thinking that the hobby will be negatively impacted. Again, this concern is secondary to the tragedy unfolding in China, for which we wish the best possible outcome. Doug
Unfortunately most if not all of our model manufacturing will be delayed as the entire nation is now focusing on minimizing the impact of the disease. I’m a mainland Chinese but living/working in Hong Kong. I even have relatives trapped in Hubei province as cities are blocked. I can tell you my first hand experience over the past 10 days. Masks were sold out as people all over the country incl. HK are stocking up masks which are considered as the most effective way to stay away from being infected. Food supply has been stable but much lower than normal days, both due to the Chinese New Year and the virus. It is inevitable the virus is about to hit its climax over the next 2 weeks as people return to work/home after CNY holiday. That means hundreds of millions people will be on the move. To play down the effect, the authority has announced the CNY holiday to be prolonged with school, factories postponed its opening date.

Back to impacts on model, no one knows how long it will postpone the manufacturing. Even if you buy 2nd hand from sellers in China, courier service is down to minimum level too. You may not be aware that online e-commerce accounts for a huge portion of Chinese consuming on daily basis, from clothes to food, anything you can think of we have it available online. Sadly, none of these is available simply because the courier industry also take a hit as the government limits traffic in order to reduce people(virus) flow. Special time, special measures.

All in all, I sincerely hope they could find a cure soon, or the weather turns warm/hot as they suspect the virus cant stand high temperature like SARS in 2003.
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Old 01-30-2020, 02:35 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

A bad situation that’s for sure. Just heard on the BBC that a planned evacuation flight out of Wuhan scheduled for today has been delayed due to problems with China giving permission for the flight to operate. As plane737 alludes to with the ‘nature shaking off fleas’ thing, I’ve always believed that there’s something to that. Hopefully the virus can be conquered soon.

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Old 01-30-2020, 03:41 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

It seems too early to figure just how severe this new viral pandemic will be and where it will end - there are both encouraging and troubling indications. Again, we hope for the best. Doug
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Old 01-30-2020, 05:37 AM   #11 (permalink)
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I did not return to China this week as planned, nor will I for the foreseeable future. Our factory will remain closed until at least mid February, by government order. Schools and most businesses in the area are also closed.
Good job you weren't out there when the outbreak was announced Andrew, as you could have been trapped there! Will this have an impact on the February releases being shipped?
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Old 01-30-2020, 05:01 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

Lufthansa cancelled all flights to Mainland China. Business dealings will become difficult there for the near future.
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Old 01-30-2020, 06:23 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Air Canada cancelled all flights to China until at least the end of February. The last Air China flight landed in Montreal today. Canada's health minister says there's nothing to worry about. Yet the World Health Organization today declared this virus a world medical emergency. I don't remember a crisis like this, not even SARS, Ebola or the Avian Flu. We've never seen entire cities on total government lock down due to a health scare. This is really serious as there is no containment, cause or even a cure yet. What's even scarier, no one knows how it spreads or is transmitted.
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Old 01-30-2020, 06:40 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

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Air Canada cancelled all flights to China until at least the end of February. The last Air China flight landed in Montreal today. Canada's health minister says there's nothing to worry about. Yet the World Health Organization today declared this virus a world medical emergency. I don't remember a crisis like this, not even SARS, Ebola or the Avian Flu. We've never seen entire cities on total government lock down due to a health scare. This is really serious as there is no containment, cause or even a cure yet. What's even scarier, no one knows how it spreads or is transmitted.

It's a virus. There won't be a cure but hopefully a vaccine. Good hygiene goes a long way. Wash your hands, cover your mouth when you cough, wash your hands and....did I mention wash your hands?
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Old 01-30-2020, 07:18 PM   #15 (permalink)
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It's a virus. There won't be a cure but hopefully a vaccine. Good hygiene goes a long way. Wash your hands, cover your mouth when you cough, wash your hands and....did I mention wash your hands?
Apparently the eyes are a target as well, so those surgical masks worn aren't helpful.
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Old 01-31-2020, 07:59 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

Don't only wash your hands frequently & covering the mouth/ nose area but as an Eye Care Professional you got to wear protective goggles or a face shield to also protect your eyes! bottom line is we all want to be safe!

https://youtu.be/RECcmQQQOj8
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Old 01-31-2020, 01:52 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I’m going on a cruise next month. Disney just sent me an email saying anyone who has been or transited through mainland China within 14 days of sailing will be denied boarding.
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Old 01-31-2020, 07:37 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Must be after the cruise ship in Italy with over 6000 aboard was put into quarantine. It has many from China on board.
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Old 01-31-2020, 08:17 PM   #19 (permalink)
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They mentioned the US advisory. I think everyone sailing sometime in February received this email today. I don’t know if March and beyond did as well.

——-

Due to the novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China, the U.S. State Department has issued a Level 4 Travel Advisory recommending no travel to China. Disney Cruise Line is carefully monitoring the latest information about this situation and is in close contact with local, state, national and international health agencies for information and guidance.

Disney Cruise Line, along with the other members of the Cruise Lines International Association, has further enhanced the screening process for guests and crew members boarding cruise ships. In an abundance of caution and given the unique environment of a cruise ship, guests and crew members who indicate they have traveled from or through mainland China in the past 14 days will not be able to board.

——-
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Old 02-01-2020, 09:43 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Drones being deployed to warn and scold citizens to go home (stay inside) and wear masks! The clip with the boy being told to run home is quite interesting, don't know if he's running from the virus or being scared by the drone and the booming voice! This may rethink our trip to Ontario in April, due to several cases being publicly identified by the health officials. Hope they can contain this deadly virus soon. T7

Video clip of drone scolding citizens:

https://torontosun.com/tag/video-cen...eo/fuYC70jhxEY

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Old 02-02-2020, 09:00 AM   #21 (permalink)
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there is a thread started on the 1/400 scale forum as to whether the virus will hold up delivery of models being sent and can the virus be transmitted..As some members here have had models delayed, I guess I have been lucky.
Here is my response to those wondering why the delay and can they get the virus opening up their models...

This should clear up a lot of fake news here....

Here is the history of (2) 1/200 ebay models bought 1/21 and shipped as one package from Hong Kong on 1/23 and made it to Orlando Florida in one week arriving at my house 1/30.
I also was notified today that another 1/200 model purchased last week just left HKG today...

Thursday, Jan 30, 2020 7:10 AM ORLANDO , FL OUT FOR DELIVERY
Thursday, Jan 30, 2020 3:05 AM ORLANDO , FL ARRIVAL AT UNIT
2:15 AM ORLANDO , FL DEPART USPS FACILITY
Wednesday, Jan 29, 2020 9:03 PM ORLANDO , FL PROCESSED THROUGH USPS FACILITY
Tuesday, Jan 28, 2020 6:33 AM FLUSHING , NY DEPART USPS FACILITY
Monday, Jan 27, 2020 10:10 AM QUEENS NY DISTRIBUTION CENTER Arrived at USPS Regional Facility
Monday, Jan 27, 2020 10:10 AM FLUSHING , NY PROCESSED THROUGH USPS FACILITY
Friday, Jan 24, 2020 1:44 PM ISC NEW YORK NY(USPS) ARRIVED AT INTERNATIONAL SERVICE CENTER
Thursday, Jan 23, 2020 2:01 PM HONG KONG GENERAL POST OFFICE Processed Through Facility

No gloves, no mask, opened up and both on dispaly..UPS DC-8 and AeroSucar 727
Enroute from HKG Boeing SP and Fed Ex 737..again no gloves, no mask ...
perfectly healthy physically wise, but mental wise that's another story...
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Old 02-02-2020, 09:24 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Model airplanes are such a trivial thing to worry about compared to the health and welfare of many millions of people.
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Old 02-02-2020, 11:34 AM   #23 (permalink)
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So true! I have one question though as it relates to models. Here they can build an entire ER hospital in 8 days, but some mfgs can't get some models to market within a year or 2 of announcement! After the health crisis is over the mfgs. need to hire these guys!
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Old 02-03-2020, 04:40 AM   #24 (permalink)
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French government leased the Hifly A380 to repatriate citizens back to France.
Landed at Istres airbase.
All go to confinement in a holiday camp for 14 days incubation period after having been tested negative for coronavirus.
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Old 02-04-2020, 02:32 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Can you say dumb-azz! I hope he gets put on the 'No-Fly' list for Westjet for life!

Man claiming to have coronavirus forces plane to return to Toronto!

Man claiming to have coronavirus forces plane to return to Toronto

Just two hours into a WestJet flight from Toronto to Montego Bay, Jamaica, passengers had their trips unexpectedly cut short on Monday after a passenger claimed he had the coronavirus.

At some point during Flight WS 2702 the man stood up, announced that he was recently in China and had contracted the disease, according to Peel Regional Police. "That announcement was shared by the flight crew to the captain and a decision was made for the plane to return back to Pearson [International Airport]," said Const. Bancroft Wright.

Passenger Julie-Anne Broderick says she and her family were concerned. "We were just over Florida and all of a sudden we felt the plane do a pretty dramatic turn," Broderick told CBC News. "We were flying in the opposite direction all of a sudden and it said our final destination was back in Toronto. So we were very confused and worried."

She says she saw the man taking a selfie and telling passengers around him that he had the coronavirus. "The flight attendants came, gave him a mask and gloves and just told him that he had to move to the back of the plane" she said.

WestJet said in a statement the crew followed all protocols for infectious disease on board, including sequestering the man.

The captain informed passengers that, because of the incident, they couldn't land in Jamaica or the U.S. and had to return to Toronto.

The captain said he believed it was a hoax, according to Broderick. "I guess this guy thought it was a funny joke but it's just really weird. We were all very frustrated, to just place 240 people...it's just so selfish. We've lost a day of our vacation," says Broderick.

The plane landed around 2:10 p.m. ET and the man, a 29-year-old from nearby Thornhill, was arrested and charged with mischief.

He is scheduled to appear in court on March 9. WestJet apologized to the 243 passengers.

Two flights were cancelled due to the incident. WestJet said it would add an extra flight on Tuesday, both to and from Montego Bay, for those affected.
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Old 02-04-2020, 08:10 PM   #26 (permalink)
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There should be a quarantine area on commercial planes (AKA the lavatory) with an ejection button controlled by the flight crew! Should have sprayed him down with Lysol and made him gargle with it!
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Old 02-07-2020, 12:23 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Good on Bill Gates and his foundation!

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is donating $100 million to coronavirus relief efforts!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/06/busin...rus/index.html
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Old 02-07-2020, 08:45 PM   #28 (permalink)
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So true! I have one question though as it relates to models. Here they can build an entire ER hospital in 8 days, but some mfgs can't get some models to market within a year or 2 of announcement! After the health crisis is over the mfgs. need to hire these guys!
Are you serious?
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Old 02-08-2020, 11:33 AM   #29 (permalink)
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Yes...8 days from bare ground to finish! No, hiring the workers was a joke!
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Old 02-08-2020, 11:46 AM   #30 (permalink)
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Seems like Pangolins which are endangered btw, may be where the virus got it's start. Chinese people sure like to venture outside their borders to eat animals out of extinction dont they? I say we westeners get a taste for Giant Panda and see how they like them apples?
https://nypost.com/2020/02/07/endang...searchers-say/
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Old 02-08-2020, 12:40 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Bwah ha ha! Thinking the same thing! Put a new spin on turduckin! Eat the snake that ate the infected bat! Now serving Panda at Panda Express!
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Old 02-08-2020, 12:49 PM   #32 (permalink)
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When I lived in Taiwan in the 70's, I would go down to the local market and get these great meat dumplings. Little did I know I was eating dog! They would serve puppy at the local college in Yanmingshan. On those days at times the chef would come down into the neighborhood to find the occasional puppy that would break away. They sure knew how to prepare such meat to make it quite tasty! Puppy, the other white meat! One reason I could not bring my pet dog. Canadian's across the street had their Irish Setter stolen...wonder what dish he was served in!

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Old 02-08-2020, 12:56 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Also in Argentina back in the late 60's you could go to a restaurant and order monkey. They would bring it out alive and place it in a contraption under the table in the center that held it just so the head was exposed. Those that would order it would bludgeon the poor thing to death. Waiter would then cut open its skull and then those would dine on fresh monkey brain. Don't believe this is done any more and stopped sometime around the early 70's.

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Old 02-08-2020, 02:47 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Yes...8 days from bare ground to finish! No, hiring the workers was a joke!
OK. I checked Snopes on this. Actually 10 days (like 2 days makes a diff?). But the revelation is this thing is all prefab units. Pretty remarkable, just the same. But for me, 'from bare ground to finish' suggests excavating & pouring concrete. That isn't apparent. Just prefab units.

https://www.snopes.com/ap/2020/02/03...as-toll-grows/
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Old 02-08-2020, 08:08 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Yep...impressive nonetheless regardless of how it is constructed! News feed I got said 8 days, but who is counting when so little time went into it!

Back in the 1980's about an hour from where I live there was a new development under construction. The housing market was hot and people were getting into bidding wars as there was a lack of housing for a growing job market. Once the foundations were poured, the builder would have the whole row of townhouses, about 8 units, framed and under roof in a day!

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Old 02-09-2020, 09:24 AM   #36 (permalink)
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Looks like the Cruise lines are clamping down on who is now allowed to board their ships during this outbreak.

Citing coronavirus, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian bar travelers with Chinese passports

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...nese-passports

Adopting some of the most restrictive responses yet to the coronavirus outbreak, the Royal Caribbean and Norwegian cruise lines announced Friday that they would bar any traveler with a passport from China, Hong Kong or Macao from their ships.

For Norwegian Cruise Line, the latest restriction would hold in place “until further notice,” the company said. Royal Caribbean will keep the regulation in effect through the end of February.

The new rule for Royal Caribbean International is stricter than the cruise line’s previous requirement that called for enhanced health screening for holders of passports from China, Hong Kong and Macao and a ban on travelers boarding any of the cruise line’s ships if they have visited China, Hong Kong or Macao in the previous 15 days.

Norwegian said in a statement that anyone who had “traveled from, visited or transited via airports in China, including Hong Kong and Macao, within 30 days of their voyage embarcation, regardless of nationality, will not be allowed to board any of our vessels.” The restriction also applies to crew members.

A representative of Royal Caribbean could not be reached for comment Friday to explain the decision, but a statement posted on the company’s website said it was made “after consultation with medical experts and public health authorities ... plus changes in various countries’ requirements and regulations, along with our desire to ensure that we are able to provide a great vacation experience, while we protect our guests and crew.”

The announcement comes as cruise lines hustle to respond to an outbreak that has quarantined passengers on at least two ships and forced other cruise companies to implement a series of new health regulations for their passengers.

The effects of the outbreak on the cruise industry could be substantial, considering that cruise companies have in the last few years turned their attention to China to try to attract its estimated 83 million potential cruise customers.

Cruise lines have overhauled ships to attract Chinese travelers, modifying the food, entertainment and onboard amenities. In 2017, Princess Cruise Lines launched its first ship designed specifically for Chinese travelers.

In a coronavirus outbreak aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which has been quarantined off Yokohama, Japan, since Monday, the number of cases climbed to 61. About 3,700 passengers and crew are on board. Passengers began their journey Jan. 20 at Yokohama and were supposed to have ended their trip Feb. 4.

In Hong Kong, authorities are checking on more than 1,800 passengers and an equal number of crew members on the Dream Cruises ship, which was quarantined after passengers from the Chinese mainland tested positive for coronavirus.

In New Jersey, more than two dozen Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. passengers were screened for coronavirus Friday and four were transferred to an area hospital — the first such incident at a U.S. port, according to Bloomberg.

Also, more than 2,000 people are marooned on board the Westerdam after four countries denied entry to the cruise ship over coronavirus fears despite the crew’s insistence that no one on board is known to be infected. In a statement, the Holland America Line said it was “evaluating several options and working with different governments for a swift resolution.”

In response to the coronavirus emergency, cruise ships will deny boarding to passengers of any nationality who have visited, or traveled from or through, China, including Hong Kong and Macao, within 14 days of their sailing date, the world’s largest cruise industry association announced Friday.

Cruise lines will also screen passengers before they board and conduct “enhanced screenings” for those who show symptoms of the deadly virus.

Passengers who have cared for or been in contact with anyone diagnosed with or suspected of having the virus in the last two weeks will be turned away too. This includes people who have been around anyone being monitored for possible exposure.

The Cruise Lines International Assn., whose members operate 90% of the world’s oceangoing voyages, cited the health and safety of passengers and crew members as the reason for the new protocols, which took effect Friday. They beefed up earlier rules issued Jan. 30.

“These enhanced policies ... continue to allow for informed decisions on a case-by-case basis whether a guest or crew member will be permitted to board,” the association said in a statement.

Cruise line association members include Celebrity Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Disney Cruise Line and Princess Cruises.

The number of cases of people infected with the virus has risen to more than 31,500 worldwide. The death toll in China was at 636 as of late Friday. It was first detected in Wuhan, China, but has now spread to other parts of the world, including 12 cases in the United States.
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Old 02-09-2020, 09:42 AM   #37 (permalink)
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Floating petri dishes!
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Old 02-09-2020, 10:06 AM   #38 (permalink)
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Floating petri dishes!
Yep, you figure some future booked passengers who value their health might want to reconsider boarding one of those mammoth ships during the Coronavirus outbreak; which has now surpassed the number of deaths compared to SARS.
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Old 02-09-2020, 10:20 AM   #39 (permalink)
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Floating petri dishes!
Cruise ships are floating toilets, really. They dump their bilges while at sea - nasty, and also shut down any city where they visit, disgorging thousands of tourists for day trips. Wouldn't hurt if the cruise industry took a major hit and was forced to scale back. Me and the Mrs. have cruised Vancouver to Anchorage - tried it, liked it, too, but I wouldn't want to be one of those passengers quarantined in a small windowless inner state room - imprisoned, really. I couldn't handle it - I'd be over the side... Doug
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Old 02-09-2020, 10:45 AM   #40 (permalink)
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You and me both! It is something how they dump all the stuff at sea. Wonder why the Whale Warrior people aren't terrorizing cruise ships!

My wife and I did the Western Carribean 7 day circle back in 1990. It was okay to do once, but that is it!

...and here Sir Richard Branson just got into the "Vogage" business!
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Old 02-09-2020, 12:58 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Yep...impressive nonetheless regardless of how it is constructed! News feed I got said 8 days, but who is counting when so little time went into it!

Back in the 1980's about an hour from where I live there was a new development under construction. The housing market was hot and people were getting into bidding wars as there was a lack of housing for a growing job market. Once the foundations were poured, the builder would have the whole row of townhouses, about 8 units, framed and under roof in a day!
That is pretty amazing, alright. I'd be interested in knowing what shortcuts are being taken compared to North America building codes. Mind you, I hear here in Canada new housing is slapped together with minimal adherence to code and the result is tacky construction.

No biggy. Just curious.
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Old 02-09-2020, 01:00 PM   #42 (permalink)
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You and me both! It is something how they dump all the stuff at sea. Wonder why the Whale Warrior people aren't terrorizing cruise ships!

My wife and I did the Western Carribean 7 day circle back in 1990. It was okay to do once, but that is it!

...and here Sir Richard Branson just got into the "Vogage" business!
Hence the Pacific Garbage Islands? And now in the Atlantic too. Wow.
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Old 02-09-2020, 01:04 PM   #43 (permalink)
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Hmm. They got out of dodge to escape the lockdown, but guessing those that escaped Wuhan have spread the Coronavirus to other regions/countries/etc. Oh well, lessons learned for the next time this happens.

Where did they go? Millions left Wuhan before quarantine!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/where-...tine-1.4803739

SHANGHAI -- For weeks after the first reports of a mysterious new virus in Wuhan, millions of people poured out of the central Chinese city, cramming onto buses, trains and planes as the first wave of China's great Lunar New Year migration broke across the nation. Some carried with them the new virus that has since claimed over 800 lives and sickened more than 37,000 people.

Officials finally began to seal the borders on Jan. 23. But it was too late. Speaking to reporters a few days after the city was put under quarantine, the mayor estimated that 5 million people had already left.

Where did they go?

An Associated Press analysis of domestic travel patterns using map location data from Chinese tech giant Baidu shows that in the two weeks before Wuhan's lockdown, nearly 70 per cent of trips out of the central Chinese city were within Hubei province. Baidu has a map app that is similar to Google Maps, which is blocked in China.

Another 14 per cent of the trips went to the neighbouring provinces of Henan, Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi. Nearly 2 per cent slipped down to Guangdong province, the coastal manufacturing powerhouse across from Hong Kong, and the rest fanned out across China. The cities outside Hubei province that were top destinations for trips from Wuhan between Jan. 10 and Jan. 24 were Chongqing, a municipality next to Hubei province, Beijing and Shanghai.

The travel patterns broadly track with the early spread of the virus. The majority of confirmed cases and deaths have occurred in China, within Hubei province, followed by high numbers of cases in central China, with pockets of infections in Chongqing, Shanghai and Beijing as well.

"It's definitely too late," said Jin Dong-Yan, a molecular virologist at Hong Kong University's School of Biomedical Sciences. "Five million out. That's a big challenge. Many of them may not come back to Wuhan but hang around somewhere else. To control this outbreak, we have to deal with this. On one hand, we need to identify them. On the other hand, we need to address the issue of stigma and discrimination."

He added that the initial spread of travellers to provinces in central China with large pools of migrant workers and relatively weaker health care systems "puts a big burden on the hospitals ... of these resource-limited provinces."

Baidu gathers travel data based on more than 120 billion daily location requests from its map app and other apps that use Baidu's location services. Only data from users who agree to share their location is recorded and the company says data is masked to protect privacy. Baidu's publicly available data shows proportional travel, not absolute numbers of recorded trips, and does not include trips by people who don't use mobile phones or apps that rely on Baidu's popular location services.

Public health officials and academics have been using this kind of mapping data for years to track the potential spread of disease.

A group of researchers from Southampton University's WorldPop research group, which studies population dynamics, used 2013-2015 data from Baidu's location services and international flight itineraries to make a predictive global risk map for the likely spread of the virus from Wuhan.

It's important to understand the population movements out of Wuhan before the city's lock down, said Lai Shengjie, a WorldPop researcher who used to work at China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

"Maybe they hadn't developed symptoms but could transmit the virus. We need to look at destinations across China and the world and focus on the main destinations and try to prepare for disease control and prevention," he said.

The last trains left Wuhan the morning of Jan. 23, cutting off a surge of outbound travel that had begun three days earlier, Baidu data shows. Nearby cities rushed to impose travel restrictions of their own. From Jan. 23 to Jan. 26, the 15 cities that Baidu data shows received the most travellers from Wuhan -- a combined 70% -- all imposed some level of travel restrictions.

Other nations soon followed suit, including the United States, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand and the Philippines, all of which have sharply restricted entry for people coming from China. Others, like Italy and Indonesia, have barred flights.

WorldPop researchers found that travel out of Wuhan has historically ramped up in the weeks before Lunar New Year's Day. Based on historical travel patterns, they identified 18 high-risk cities within China that received the most travellers from Wuhan during this period. They then used 2018 flight itineraries from the International Air Transport Association to map the global connectivity of those cities.

They note that travel patterns after restrictions started rolling out on Jan. 23 will not match historical norms and that the cities they identified are initial ports of landing; travellers could have subsequently moved elsewhere.

The top 10 global destinations for travellers from high-risk Chinese cities around Lunar New Year, according to their analysis, were Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Australia.

In Africa, Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria and Kenya topped the list.

The African continent is particularly vulnerable because of the weaker health infrastructure in many countries, and the longer cases go undetected, the more likely they are to spread.

"Capacity is quite weak in many African health services," Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager for the World Health Organization in Africa, told the AP. This new virus "could overwhelm health systems we have in Africa."

The Africa Centers for Disease Control, formed three years ago in response to the Ebola crisis in West Africa, said screening has been stepped up at ports of entry across Africa. Egypt began screening passengers from affected areas in China on Jan. 16. Over the next eight days, Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Mauritius and Kenya all put screening systems in place. No confirmed cases have been reported.

Lai and his colleagues said they found a "high correlation" between the early spread of coronavirus cases and the geographical risk patterns they identified.

The first case of the virus outside China was reported on Jan. 13 in Thailand, followed two days later by Japan, the countries with the highest connectivity risk, according to WorldPop's analysis. Within 10 days of Wuhan's quarantine, the virus had spread to more than two dozen countries; nine of the 10 countries with the most flight connections to at-risk mainland cities also had the highest numbers of confirmed cases, mostly afflicting people who had been in China.

The pattern isn't perfect; Zhejiang province, for example, was not a top destination from Wuhan this year, according to Baidu data, but now has among the highest numbers of confirmed cases.

"Our aim was to help guide some of the surveillance and thinking around the control measures," said Andrew Tatem, the director of WorldPop, adding that his group plans to update their analysis.

"There was a huge amount of movement out of the Wuhan region before the controls came into place," he said. "Now we're getting to stage of having data from multiple places on the scale of outbreaks elsewhere."

Scientists have identified the new virus as a coronavirus, a family of viruses that includes ones that can cause the common cold, as well as others that cause more serious illnesses, like SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome.

Many are now focused on what will happen after the second wave of the Lunar New Year rush as people once again crowd onto trains, buses and planes to head back to work. The Chinese government extended the holiday, which was supposed to end on Jan. 30, to Feb. 2. Shanghai, Beijing and several Chinese provinces ordered businesses to remain shut through Sunday, leaving the nation's great megalopolises feeling like ghost towns.

"It's in cities where people interact much more," Tatem said. "That's potentially the worry of lots of people coming back in. A few people seeding that could result in a bigger problem."

------

Associated Press writers Cara Anna in Johannesburg and Samy Magdy in Cairo contributed to this report.
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Old 02-09-2020, 04:38 PM   #44 (permalink)
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there is a thread started on the 1/400 scale forum as to whether the virus will hold up delivery of models being sent and can the virus be transmitted..As some members here have had models delayed, I guess I have been lucky.
Here is my response to those wondering why the delay and can they get the virus opening up their models...

This should clear up a lot of fake news here....

Here is the history of (2) 1/200 ebay models bought 1/21 and shipped as one package from Hong Kong on 1/23 and made it to Orlando Florida in one week arriving at my house 1/30.
I also was notified today that another 1/200 model purchased last week just left HKG today...

Thursday, Jan 30, 2020 7:10 AM ORLANDO , FL OUT FOR DELIVERY
Thursday, Jan 30, 2020 3:05 AM ORLANDO , FL ARRIVAL AT UNIT
2:15 AM ORLANDO , FL DEPART USPS FACILITY
Wednesday, Jan 29, 2020 9:03 PM ORLANDO , FL PROCESSED THROUGH USPS FACILITY
Tuesday, Jan 28, 2020 6:33 AM FLUSHING , NY DEPART USPS FACILITY
Monday, Jan 27, 2020 10:10 AM QUEENS NY DISTRIBUTION CENTER Arrived at USPS Regional Facility
Monday, Jan 27, 2020 10:10 AM FLUSHING , NY PROCESSED THROUGH USPS FACILITY
Friday, Jan 24, 2020 1:44 PM ISC NEW YORK NY(USPS) ARRIVED AT INTERNATIONAL SERVICE CENTER
Thursday, Jan 23, 2020 2:01 PM HONG KONG GENERAL POST OFFICE Processed Through Facility

No gloves, no mask, opened up and both on dispaly..UPS DC-8 and AeroSucar 727
Enroute from HKG Boeing SP and Fed Ex 737..again no gloves, no mask ...
perfectly healthy physically wise, but mental wise that's another story...
The relative speediness of your delivery though is not typical of current shipping times out of China and Hong Kong. Ebay have now added a note to their tracking info stating "Deliveries from China may be delayed" . As mentioned in the thread I created in the 1:400 section, I have 5 inbound purchases from Hong Kong that have been stuck in Kowloon for several weeks, that typically take no longer than 10 days to arrive after ordering online.

Oh and that's not an 'unsympathetic to the situation' complaint by the way and neither was the reasoning behind the thread, despite some contributors attempts to suggest otherwise.
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Old 02-10-2020, 08:09 AM   #45 (permalink)
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No cruise vacation for you! Looks like if the cruise ship company finds out that you went anywhere near parts of China/HK, even for a few hours at the airport; you are barred from the cruise and SOL. Sorry for the couple. T7

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/news/coron...kong-1.4803349

An Ottawa couple is unpacking their bags, after they were denied boarding a cruise in Singapore.

Cheryl and Paul Elford were schedule to board the Celebrity Millenium Feb. 1 in Singapore, but amidst the coronavirus outbreaks, were told they could no longer go.

“24 hours ahead of time, they changed the itinerary and told us we couldn’t board,” said Cheryl Elford.

“If you had transited through Hong Kong you were denied boarding.”

The couple had a connecting flight through Hong Kong.

“Our flight was Ottawa to Toronto, Toronto to Hong Kong, where we spent four hours in the airport,” said Paul Elford.

“We only in the airport lounge, we really weren’t exposed to anything but there was ‘no exceptions’.”

Celebrity Cruises said in a letter to guests leaving Feb. 16, that in response to the coronavirus emergency, the ship will deny boarding to passengers who have visited, or travelled from or through mainland China or Hong Kong within 15 days prior to embarkation.

"Rest assured the health and safety of our guests and crew is Celebrity Cruises' number one priority," the statement, dated Jan 31, said.

"To that end, any guest who has transited through mainland China or Hong Kong, 15 days prior to embarkation will be denied boarding and issues a full refund. This includes guests on connecting flights."

The Elfords were in Hong Kong on Jan. 19, and therefore, based off this new measure, missed the quarantine period by two days. They decided to return to Ottawa.

“We didn’t know if it was going to get worse, so we just went home,” said Elford.

“We understand, but it was devastating.”

The Elfords say the cruise line told them they would be eligible for up to $500 dollars reimbursement for their last minute flights home, despite spending $2750 on flights back to Ottawa.

CTV News reached out to Celebrity Cruise lines but is still waiting on a response.

The additional measures come as several cruises have been quarantined and denied entry to ports by a number of countries.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:56 AM   #46 (permalink)
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Upkeep, it is a subcode not on the books, but understood by all contractors trying to get a quick approval. The first is the bottle code...get the inspector their favorite bottle of spirits. Works best around the holidays! The second is the "smooth pass" by shaking their hand with money attached to yours that somehow transfers to theirs!

As for contractors being worried about using these methods with regard to the customer...the third banking rule applies...everything is warrantied up until the check clears!
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:13 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Disney had originally said on Jan 31 that anyone who had traveled to/from/through mainland China within 14 days of sailing would be denied. They sent me another email last week saying they were adding Hong Kong and Macau to the ban as well and that Bahamian ports of call would be have a 20 day ban.



Disney's private island is a Bahamian port of call.
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Old 02-11-2020, 07:59 AM   #48 (permalink)
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Default Re: The Wuhan Coronavirus

I wasn't going to China this year but i definitely had plans to visit Japan & Korea in 2020.. of course that will not happen at least not this year anyway but i'm still wondering how the summer Olympics will unfold in Tokyo given that the Novel coronavirus is still not under control in mainland China and continues to spread like wild fire..
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:40 AM   #49 (permalink)
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I feel sorry for these cruise passengers, based on 4 countries that want nothing to do with their ship!

https://www.foxnews.com/travel/coron...tranded-at-sea

The MS Westerdam cruise ship has been stuck at sea for nearly two weeks and will remain without a port after Thailand became the latest nation to block its entry amid possible fears of the coronavirus on Tuesday.

A spokesperson for the Holland America cruise line previously told Fox News the ship planned to dock at Laem Chabang on Feb. 13, but now it appears that won't be happening. Thailand's Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced on Facebook Tuesday that he refused permission to dock.


Some of the MS Westerdam's roughly 2,257 passengers have pleaded online about their situation to no avail. The ship has been denied entry in Thailand, the Philippines, and Japan since it left Hong Kong on Feb. 1. The U.S. territory of Guam has also refused the ship's entry.

"Definitely stressful.we have been at sea 14 days as of this Friday. We have no passengers sick in any way. Westerdam is a ship of primarily US, Australian, British cruisers with no contact with mainland China other than to land in Hong Kong and go straight to our ship. #westerdam," one user wrote.


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Definitely stressful.we have been at sea 14 days as of this Friday. We have no passengers sick in any way. Westerdam is a ship of primarily US, Australian, British cruisers with no contact with mainland China other than to land in Hong Kong and go straight to our ship. #westerdam

Steve Muth, from Onsted Mich., told AZ Central they had been just floating around the ocean.

"We've been denied, essentially, every port, every country since leaving Hong Kong," he said.

The news comes as Carnival's Diamond Princess has seen more than 130 of its 3,700 passengers infected with the virus -- which has killed over 1,000 people and infected over 40,000 globally. They remain in quarantine in the port of Yokohama.

Fox News reported that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suspected some of the passengers of the MS Westerdam have been infected, a reason for their denial at the port of Yokohama.

Holland America said there is no reason to believe there are any cases of coronavirus on the vessel, which they also confirmed is not under quarantine.

The cruise line said that all passengers will receive a 100 percent refund for the trip and a 100 credit to their next cruise. Passengers have been given complimentary phone and Internet access.

Holland America Line is a brand owned by Miami based Carnival Corp.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:20 AM   #50 (permalink)
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I feel sorry for these cruise passengers, based on 4 countries that want nothing to do with their ship!

The news comes as Carnival's Diamond Princess has seen more than 130 of its 3,700 passengers infected with the virus -- which has killed over 1,000 people and infected over 40,000 globally. They remain in quarantine in the port of Yokohama.

Fox News reported that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suspected some of the passengers of the MS Westerdam have been infected, a reason for their denial at the port of Yokohama.

Holland America said there is no reason to believe there are any cases of coronavirus on the vessel, which they also confirmed is not under quarantine.

The cruise line said that all passengers will receive a 100 percent refund for the trip and a 100 credit to their next cruise. Passengers have been given complimentary phone and Internet access.

Holland America Line is a brand owned by Miami based Carnival Corp.
I also feel sorry for all these passengers because it seems that life on one of these cruise ships is more like a floating prison as none of the passengers & crew know when or how this quarantine will end.. and even if all these passengers get the 100% refund & another 100% credit towards their next cruise, it all doesn't matter if you have contracted the Novel coronavirus because your pretty much with one foot in the grave already as you can see how terrible this virus is spreading at the moment with still no cure in sight..
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Paris was the greatest city on earth! Vive la France! Tokyo 2020!
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