FortunateSon

Stick with me here. I've been collecting diecast for a long time and know a thing or two about business, at least I think I do.

Over the last decade and a half or so, diecast aircraft collecting has experienced a renaissance, led by Hobbymaster, based on two major factors:

1. Hobbymaster (and its competitors) have produced subjects never seen before in top-quality diecast and
2. Hobbymaster (and its competitors) materially advanced the quality and accuracy of diecast aircraft - ie, the "state of the art" or "AAA" quality.

Key to the financial success of every manufacturer in this period has been the ability to sell thousands of copies a given mould in multiple liveries. Taken with a thick brush, diecast subjects could be classified as either "obvious" or "obscure." Obvious releases include things like the F-14, F-35, P-51, Su-27, F-4, and other hot sellers.

Here we are 15 years or so later. Hast the "state of the art" changed? Well, a bit, sure, but not much. HM's releases today are, in the first approximation, similar quality-wise to theirs 15 years ago. The last big quality jumps in aircraft on the "obvious" list - mig29, eurofighter typhoon, su27 are happening now.

And once those are done? What is left on the "obvious" list for AAA release?

In 1/72, there's not much other than closed-off French jets and the V-22 osprey come to mind. Maybe something like the B-17. Beyond that there are very few multiple-thousands-multiple-liveries aircraft left that haven't been done already in "state of the art" diecast.

What you're left with then are secondary subjects (gripen, trainers, chinese jets), modifications and variants on existing toolings (f-105g and other 2-seaters, growler hornet, and the like), re-dos of existing AAA releases that are now hard to find (CW intruders, crusaders, and corsair 2s), and re-runs of popular liveries of existing releases. Which are all great in their own way and I'm sure some of us will find things to buy and like.. but none of which are that money train of AAA releases of multiple-thousands multiple-liveries, really.

And, though lord knows consumers in this hobby tend to be hoarders, the industry is hampered by the longevity and space requirements of the items. You can surely on ebay find a cw or hobbymaster release from 15 years ago "never opened" on ebay that is for all practical purposes as good as the day it was made. As people get bored with the hobby or rationalize their collections, manufacturers will be increasingly competing with their own customers for new sales.

What to be done?
- HM and others will continue to seek out the last few multiple-thousand multiple livery subjects out there. Re-doing some franklin mint 1/48 subjects will probably do this somewhat - HM is totally silly for not having done a 1/48 dauntless in the runup to the midway movie, for example, and a hellcat is surely in the works.
- HM and others will increasingly look to secondary subjects, but the overall profitability on these will likely be low.
- HM and others should do what i've been saying for years: concentrate on making their packaging collapsible. I don't quite think they have a scooby doo about how much their future sales depend on this.
- And, finally, HM and others should increase the state of the art - invest in the next AAA that will obsolete today's AAA standards - again, as I've been saying for years - a HM 'premium' range. At twice the price and the wow factor to make collectors feel that their existing X just doesn't cut it any more. As with record companies making you want to pay again for the same music when you format switch from tapes to cds to digital, HM and its competitors need to find that next format. in addition to overall quality improvements, adding subtle lighting to models may reinvigorate some releases since lighting can be added quite cheaply. vastly improved cockpits and landing gear are probably a good place to go too.

otherwise, the lack of multiple-thousand multiple-livery subjects to be done in AAA quality will invariably grind this hobby down and existing collectors will drift away in a 3-5 year time period when their last niches and last physical space is used up.