Despite all this speculation, let's remember that almost 90% of air disasters are caused by a chain of events, mostly rare or unlucky that culminate in an accident.
Despite all this speculation, let's remember that almost 90% of air disasters are caused by a chain of events, mostly rare or unlucky that culminate in an accident.
Which is why the hypoxia and aircraft continued to fly is my best guess at what happened.
Now that you have mentioned the Helios flight with F-16's identifying and intercepting it, would the same not be expected here? If this 777 was flown to some undisclosed location/destination it would have been spotted as an unidentified aircraft entering the airspace of that country (unless that country was expecting its arrival) and the air force of that particular country would have scrambled fighters to intercept it? Isn't that what is usually done in such situations and if it was flown below radar level to avoid any detection, what altitude are we looking at here because if you are flying West and that too at a low altitude, you are looking at a much higher rate of fuel burn.
Which is why the hypoxia and aircraft continued to fly is my best guess at what happened.
It's still tough to see how this is possible given the apparent sequential shutdown of various communication aspects of the aircraft. Something just seems wrong about this entire event, but I think it's logical to assume we have not been told all there is to know.
IF the aircraft was hijacked, we have to assume someone got aboard with weapons already stashed away inside the aircraft, overpowered the crew, and knew how to fly the aircraft. Under this scenario it's possible the aircraft headed west with the assumption they could make it to someplace like Somalia, Yemen, or some other country known to harbor various terrorist groups. Somalia and Yemen are more lawless which would "fit" the concept of a place to hide the aircraft. As for the passengers, I really don't think their safety would be of any concern for hijackers that are determined to grab the aircraft for sinister reasons. The big question would be could this particular aircraft have made it across the Indian Ocean given its fuel reserves at the time it disappeared from radar? Based on what is being said on the air, it did not have this capability. All the more reason this situation is so bizarre...
I've got to believe there are "behind the scenes" analyses going on right now to determine what really happened to this plane. Part of that investigation is hopefully centered on who was on that plane besides the pilots that might have aviation training capable of handling a 777. Whatever happened, I fear the passengers are long gone. Let's hope they did not suffer too long. Let's also hope there is not a part 2 of this saga with a bomb-laden 777 crashing into more innocent victims...
I've heard reports that the malaysian authorities/police have not yet entered (after 1 week) the captain's home to search for any clues?? Has anyone heard anything different? You figure that would be the number 1 place to check after such an incident with the plane/flight.
Malaysia Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein rejected reports police had searched the home of Captain Shah.
So is he saying the police have no business to enter the pilot's home? Is the pilot connected to someone higher up in the government? Just mind boggling that the Minister would say something like that?
Which is why the hypoxia and aircraft continued to fly is my best guess at what happened.
I disagree that hypoxia was the cause ... although I don't have any official proof otherwise, I just am basing this entirely on "hunch", and my gut feeling is that this plane was unfortunately "commandeered" or "hijacked" by a rogue pilot or passenger(s).
The entirely unorthodox chain of events which was succeeded this routine flight has me highly suspicious of foul flight (pun intended). I actually believe that this plane landed safely in some remote and/or uncharted airfield/runway somewhere in a Third World property/island neighboring India/Pakistan. I hope I'm wrong, and the plane actually landed safely in a FREE country - but if that were the case, the news of such an occurence would have long become news fodder.
Nope ... this plane has been secured by a secret coalition of extremists that may very well be planning on using this aircraft for a future mission of some sort.
Malaysia's Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein made clear that investigators do not know what happened to the jetliner despite a week of intense searching.
U.S. officials who have been briefed on the investigation have said two of the plane's communications systems were shut down separately and it appeared to have been done manually.
“There are four or five possibilities which we are exploring," Hishammuddin told a news conference today. "It could have been done intentionally. It could be done under duress. It could have been done because of an explosion. That’s why I don’t want to go into the realm of speculation. We are looking at the all the possibilities.”
When asked whether investigators were looking at whether one of the plane's two pilots or cabin crew could have involved in whatever happened to the plane, he replied. “We are looking at that possibility.”
“The investigation into the pilots is ongoing,” he said in response to another question, but said they have not yet searched their homes.
Malaysia Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya added to the speculation that the plane's disappearance was the result of a plot rather than a catastrophic failure of the airplane's systems. “We cannot confirm whether there is no hijacking. Like I said from the start, and I’ve been very consistent, we are looking at all possibilities,” Yahya said.
A senior U.S. military official told ABC News that they had not ruled out that the plane was flown to a secret site so it could be used at a later date.
"I am keenly interested in resolving this mystery so we can discard the possibility, however remote, that the airplane can be used for nefarious purposes against us in the future," the official said.
I'm certainly happy to be wrong, however. Because the other obvious scenario is that the plane ultimately ran out of "gas" and has either crashed into terrain or hard-landed into the Indian Ocean, thus sealing the fates of those aboard.
In either case, the outcome is tragic and sad, and there is no consolation for the innocent passengers and crew; nor their weary families hoping to put closure on this extraordinary situation.
Hopefully I'm wrong in my prediction, and some how, some way there may be a more fortuitous outcome ... but that's how I feel at this point ...
Last edited by MarinerOne; 03-14-2014 at 08:51 PM.
Washington (CNN) -- A classified analysis of electronic and satellite data suggests Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 likely crashed either in the Bay of Bengal or elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, CNN learned Friday.
The analysis conducted by the United States and Malaysian governments may have narrowed the search area for the commercial jetliner that vanished a week ago with 239 people on board en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, leaving little trace of where it went or why.
The analysis used radar data and satellite pings to calculate that the plane diverted to the west, across the Malayan peninsula, and then either flew in a northwest direction toward the Bay of Bengal or southwest into the Indian Ocean.
================================================== ===
Now, I feel resigned to the fact that this flight has crashed into the Indian Ocean somewhere, and it's only a matter of time when the american navy finds crash debris of this ill fated flight.
The problem I have with the hijacking, stolen aircraft theory, is what's the motivation and end game. A terrorist act is designed to create fear and you do this by announcing you did it. If plane was stolen for money or ransom, we would have heard a ransom demand by now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wilson3a10
if it was a terrorist action, there should be something made public by them, declaring who they are and what they want but apparently it seems not because it has been nearly a week.
People keep saying this, and it still isn't correct. There are many terrorist attacks where the real actors never publicly claimed responsibility soon afterwards.
The problem with the plane being hijacked/stolen is it has to land somewhere. A 777 needs a halfway decent runway long enough to land and take off on. You don't think the intelligence community of most large countries with spy satellites don't keep tabs on runways where a potential strike could be launched? I'm sure evryone of these runways have been mapped.
And what about the 250 passengers? Unless they have all been killed and tossed in a hole, that's a lot of people they need to control and take care of.
And if they wanted a plane to use as a weapon, there are a lot easier ways for these bad guys to get a hold of a large plane that does not deal with passengers.
I'm think the hijacked/stolen and landed somewhere is the least likly cause. If you want to go done this road, I'd say a wicked out pilot with a death wish flew the plane out to the middle of the Indian Ocean and crashed it.
There are now reports claiming that MH370 ascended to flight level 450 shortly after its last voice transmission, then down to 230, and then headed west. If this is true, you could possibly imagine a struggle in the cockpit as the plane loses control and then control is regained after the struggle is over. Once again, mere speculation. Worse yet, reports like this (from the NY Times) are always suspect. The aircraft would not easily attain flight level 450, especially with a full load and after only 40 minutes of flight.
No matter what the reality is that occurred that night, it had to have been a very disturbing chain of events and an extremely terrifying ending for the passengers. Lets face it, if terrorists commandeered the plane for sinister purposes the passengers would be expendable. Maybe there was a "flight 93" response as the fight continued... The cockpit was stormed by passengers and remaining crew figuring they had nothing to lose.
I am just at the point that I feel tired with all the questions, assumptions and most of all the confusions that made by all the Malaysian officials themselves. The Minister denying the Policeman, the Malaysian Airlines denying the Army Generals, the Army Generals denying their first statement....gosh!
A kind of lack of co-ordination is getting worse everyday....
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There have been some reports that MH370 was carrying quite a few lithium batteries in the cargo hold. There is a strict limit on how many and what can be loaded onto pax aircraft. I wouldn't shock me if this plane was over the limit or carrying a type of battery albeit some sort of product that is forbidden on passenger flights. It certainly wouldn't be the first time and might not have been intentional. This could spark a fire which very quickly got out of hand and is also a reason the transponder went out. If there was a slow depressurization then this could explain why the aircraft is supposedly downed in the Indian Ocean. They turned around to head back to either KUL or Penang and then fell unconscious. The plane then continued onwards until crashing. Though this doesn't answer why the plane supposedly ascended quite high before descending again.
There are now reports claiming that MH370 ascended to flight level 450 shortly after its last voice transmission, then down to 230, and then headed west. If this is true, you could possibly imagine a struggle in the cockpit as the plane loses control and then control is regained after the struggle is over. Once again, mere speculation. Worse yet, reports like this (from the NY Times) are always suspect. The aircraft would not easily attain flight level 450, especially with a full load and after only 40 minutes of flight.
No matter what the reality is that occurred that night, it had to have been a very disturbing chain of events and an extremely terrifying ending for the passengers. Lets face it, if terrorists commandeered the plane for sinister purposes the passengers would be expendable. Maybe there was a "flight 93" response as the fight continued... The cockpit was stormed by passengers and remaining crew figuring they had nothing to lose.
Like I said, crazy pilot with a death wish. Kills co-pilot and takes plane for a joy ride before crashing in the Indian Ocean.
There have been some reports that MH370 was carrying quite a few lithium batteries in the cargo hold. There is a strict limit on how many and what can be loaded onto pax aircraft. I wouldn't shock me if this plane was over the limit or carrying a type of battery albeit some sort of product that is forbidden on passenger flights. It certainly wouldn't be the first time and might not have been intentional. This could spark a fire which very quickly got out of hand and is also a reason the transponder went out. If there was a slow depressurization then this could explain why the aircraft is supposedly downed in the Indian Ocean. They turned around to head back to either KUL or Penang and then fell unconscious. The plane then continued onwards until crashing. Though this doesn't answer why the plane supposedly ascended quite high before descending again.
This hypothesis sounds very plausible to me, however one small thing keeps still bugging me.
We all know that the Captain has logged more than 16,000 hours in his 18 service years, and have dedicated all his passion to flying. When he got a problem with all the electronics (especially the comms, that might got damaged by the fire/explosion from Lithium battery or any dangerous material in cargo hold), and decided to turn back to the west, should he deployed the RAT? For sure, he is familiar with the adage "Aviate-Navigate-Communicate"...at least he should be able to send the distress signal..
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The more I hear from the various sources, the more confusing this gets. There is not any theory that handles all the pieces of the puzzle. Having said that it sure sounds like someone was doing something very bad up there. I know when I'm on a round trip trans-Pacific 777 flight next week I'll be edgy until my trip is over... Logic and safety statistics aside, emotions are hard to control after reading about this tragedy.
I am just at the point that I feel tired with all the questions, assumptions and most of all the confusions that made by all the Malaysian officials themselves. The Minister denying the Policeman, the Malaysian Airlines denying the Army Generals, the Army Generals denying their first statement....gosh!
A kind of lack of co-ordination is getting worse everyday....
I agree 100% with your comments.
This has been a very stressful and perplexing ordeal not just for the families and authorities but also the people following this saga. When you follow events like this, getting caught up in it seems almost inevitable. I can't imagine how the families must feel during this hellish week.
I think the searchers are doing a superb job trying to locate the aircraft but the media and press conferences are just inconsistent and quite misleading. Hopes are dashed when the lead goes cold and everyone is back at square one. This is an emotional rollercoaster like no other - for more than just the family and searchers.
The thought of a B772 with 239 people onboard hitting the sea is just so upsetting. Especially if it was intentional! Part of me wants so badly to see that MH 772 sitting on some unknown landing strip and everyone safe and sound and at times that seems almost possible but fact is that is more unlikely then likely.....
Lets all just hope for a quick resolution so we can all get one with our lives and let the investigators do their job and the families can process all of this once and for all.
I imagine Mayday/Air Crash Investigations will require a double episode for this one!!!!!
Not stressful, just amusing to watch all the armchair thoerists banging on with nothing better to do.
I'got on with my life 5 minutes after watching the news announcement.
I am just at the point that I feel tired with all the questions, assumptions and most of all the confusions that made by all the Malaysian officials themselves. The Minister denying the Policeman, the Malaysian Airlines denying the Army Generals, the Army Generals denying their first statement....gosh!
A kind of lack of co-ordination is getting worse everyday....
I believe this incident is way beyond the capabilities of the Malysian government and they have done the best they can. It appears from the news the last couple of days the UK and USA (along with Boeing and RR) seem to be taking the lead in the investigation. I'm also sensing some intelligence sharing with satellite and radar data from various sources countries in the region.
A major news conference that the Malaysian PM himself will be leading is about to get underway. Reports say that the govt will officially declare the plane was hi-jacked.
Interesting Malaysia's Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein is the cousin of the Malaysian Prime Minister. This is the same govt official who's been getting plenty of flak for the past week for how Malyasia was handling the situation with MAS 370.
Malaysian PM Najib Razak has just stated that the communication devices on board MAS 370 were tampered with. He did not mention hi-jacking. He just walked out of the press conference room without answering any questions.
Last communication with MAS 370 was 8:11am; almost 6+ hours later when it was first reported lost.
Malaysian PM Najib Razak has just stated that the communication devices on board MAS 370 were tampered with. He did not mention hi-jacking.
He might not have said "hi-jacking" quite in those exact words, but the way I interpret his press conference announcement was that the plane was indeed "commandeered" by a rogue pilot (or pilots) determined to alter the course of the airplane from its original destination of Beijing to somewhere in the direction of Mumbai or Islamabad (being facetious with the alternate destinations ... but you get my drift).
Honestly, if this is NOT a hijacking ... I don't know WHAT is.
Let's face it folks ... this "aircraft theft" has the potential to be VERY catastrophic if indeed terrorists are behind this heinous act. Until the aircraft is located, intact or otherwise, the possibility DOES exist that its ultimate purpose may be used as a weapon of mass destruction. The thought may be considered exaggerated and impossible by many here, but we live in a day and age, unfortunately, in which the UNBELIEVABLE becomes bizarre reality, and we are witnessing one such event unfolding before our eyes.
I would like to be entirely wrong here ... but I am sharing my true sentiments ...
Last edited by MarinerOne; 03-15-2014 at 05:13 AM.
Again, even though the statement was addressed by The Honor Prime Minister himself, who was supplied by the same officials/teams that deliver statements for the past week- it is still has an ambiguous thing.
The PM said that the comms were deliberately disabled around midnight, however the "last sight" of MH370 by satellites was on 08.11 AM 8 March 2015, Malaysian Time. That was almost 6-7 hours later, and the aircraft is still on the region - in northern Malacca Straits? Was it circling around in the region, where the sun already shines? And the air force did nothing?
Either "the person(s) who act deliberately" is/are really stupid [s/he/they can reach somewhere in The Middle East, if they would really mean to hijack and steal the aircraft] or there was an 6-7 hours drama or fight on-board MH370.
Confirmed the turning-back, denied the turning-back, and now confirming again the turning-back...
I can feel the pain of the families, relatives and friends of the pax....
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Wow! 1 week after the disappearance of MAS 370; we will now look inside the captain's home for any evidence. Is something wrong here? Why the 1 week delay? Or have they already searched the home on day 2 and did not tell anyone (which would not surprise me at all).
If in fact that they (malay officials) stalled/waited for 1 week to enter the pilot's home, has any potential evidence been compromised?
There is a culture of 'losing face' within the Asian culture, and I am sure that played into the PM's press conference. He kept saying that they have been working their butts off trying to resolve the mystery and thanking all supporting countries. Let's face it (no pun intended) the media has been bashing the Malaysian govt officials for fumbling the ball many times.
The PM did not want to say 'hi-jack' (make Malaysian airport security officials/govt look incompetent = lose face) or even 'kidnap' (this would mean the pilot or both pilots were responsible, which would look even worse/very bad for Malaysia = losing face globally)
I think we can finally rule out hypoxia or other incapacitation.
Somebody was flying this thing to somewhere.
If they haven't already, they have to check the pilot's home flight simulator, to see if there's any clues there.
I would agree and that was my theory. The changing course and altitude information released yesterday day ruled to the hypoxia. But the US government officials are calling this "human intervention" and they are using the term person(s). So this could still be a crazy pilot on a suicide flight.
There is an intensive investigation going on right now, I'm sure, to check out each of the crew and passengers (hopefully by the USA/FBI). If you remember, earlier in the week the stolen passport Iranian passengers were ruled out because their Mothers said they were nice boys wanting to immigrate to Europe. But remember the Boston bombers Mother said they were nice boys.
Wow! 1 week after the disappearance of MAS 370; we will now look inside the captain's home for any evidence. Is something wrong here? Why the 1 week delay? Or have they already searched the home on day 2 and did not tell anyone (which would not surprise me at all).
If in fact that they (malay officials) stalled/waited for 1 week to enter the pilot's home, has any potential evidence been compromised?
There is a culture of 'losing face' within the Asian culture, and I am sure that played into the PM's press conference. He kept saying that they have been working their butts off trying to resolve the mystery and thanking all supporting countries. Let's face it (no pun intended) the media has been bashing the Malaysian govt officials for fumbling the ball many times.
The PM did not want to say 'hi-jack' (make Malaysian airport security officials/govt look incompetent = lose face) or even 'kidnap' (this would mean the pilot or both pilots were responsible, which would look even worse/very bad for Malaysia = losing face globally)
Amazing it took this long. And the pilot had the flight simulator for the 777 set up in his home.
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I doubt the plane flew close to or over India/Pakistan. With the state of tensions between India and Pakistan, I'm sure that airspace is closely controlled and monitored.
I just trying to track down the route that Reuters suspect, based on the anonymous source inside Malaysian military.
KUL-IGARI (transponder off and turned back)-VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX- on airways P628 that normally used by Southeast Asian airlines flying to Europe. It crosses India and Pakistan...and the hijacker turn right to Afghanistan (?)
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I doubt the plane flew close to or over India/Pakistan. With the state of tensions between India and Pakistan, I'm sure that airspace is closely controlled and monitored.
On the other hand, the whole world now knows that you could send your air force over Malaysia, and the Malaysians wouldn't have a clue.
Wow! 1 week after the disappearance of MAS 370; we will now look inside the captain's home for any evidence. Is something wrong here? Why the 1 week delay? Or have they already searched the home on day 2 and did not tell anyone (which would not surprise me at all).
I have to believe that the entire passenger manifest was being closely studied by the authorities of all interested countries, almost immediately.
As for when investigators of the various home countries of the passengers started paying visits to homes and families to conduct interviews and look for clues, we don't know.
If you remember, earlier in the week the stolen passport Iranian passengers were ruled out because their Mothers said they were nice boys wanting to immigrate to Europe. But remember the Boston bombers Mother said they were nice boys.
I highly doubt the world's intelligence agencies simply rested upon the testimony of the mother, and no other analysis. We know that several other people were interviewed too.
Every single person on that plane has to be studied (and hopefully has been studied the entire time). Not just those two.
Last edited by AnonCollector; 03-15-2014 at 11:54 AM.
I have to believe that the entire passenger manifest was being closely studied by the authorities of all interested countries, almost immediately.
As for when investigators of the various home countries of the passengers started paying visits to homes and families to conduct interviews and look for clues, we don't know.
Totally agree with reviewing backgrounds on all those onboard; drilling down even more and doing a more indepth analysis of each passenger (excluding the infants/children).
Yes, each country probably handled their own investigations differently (for example = Oh passenger so and so... we did a criminal background check on him/her and no red flags came up; I don't know if this will work now in light of the latest news of a possible hi-jack onboard MAS 370 )
Totally agree with reviewing backgrounds on all those onboard; drilling down even more and doing a more indepth analysis of each passenger (excluding the infants/children).
Yes, each country probably handled their own investigations differently (for example = Oh passenger so and so... we did a criminal background check on him/her and no red flags came up; I don't know if this will work now in light of the latest news of a possible hi-jack onboard MAS 370 )
I think more than a background check is required. They need to trace were these passengers have traveled, account for their time the last several years and find out who they have been in contact with.
I think more than a background check is required. They need to trace were these passengers have traveled, account for their time the last several years and find out who they have been in contact with.
As well as looking for signs of mental illness.
Again, I have to think some of these checks were taking place this whole time.
2 iranians, 2 stolen passports, 2 tickets booked in thailand on a one way ticket.
These two guys arent simply two strangers looking for a new life, They both used stolen passports, they both booked there tickets in thailand, They both knew each other.
If you had a friend you could count on and were going to a country you had never been to before, wouldnt you try stick together and try bond in your new country together, perhaps to divert suspision, But why were the tickets booked in Thailand? What were they doing in Kuala Lumpur?
If your American, you dont book with a french travel agent to then travel from spain ???? The Iranians were young and could be influenced, and as from what i heard, it was a friend who said they were starting a new life & when he found out the passport was stolen he didnt ask anymore questions because he didnt want to know.
2 iranians, 2 stolen passports, 2 tickets booked in thailand on a one way ticket.
These two guys arent simply two strangers looking for a new life, They both used stolen passports, they both booked there tickets in thailand, They both knew each other.
If you had a friend you could count on and were going to a country you had never been to before, wouldnt you try stick together and try bond in your new country together, perhaps to divert suspision, But why were the tickets booked in Thailand? What were they doing in Kuala Lumpur?
If your American, you dont book with a french travel agent to then travel from spain ???? The Iranians were young and could be influenced, and as from what i heard, it was a friend who said they were starting a new life & when he found out the passport was stolen he didnt ask anymore questions because he didnt want to know.
Why are you expecting illegal migrants or asylum-seekers to travel in normal ways and patterns?
These two guys could have something to do with the story, but so could anybody else on the plane.
Why are you expecting illegal migrants or asylum-seekers to travel in normal ways and patterns?
These two guys could have something to do with the story, but so could anybody else on the plane.
Im not expecting asylum seekers to travel in a normal way, but what were the iranians doing in thailand and malaysia before ? Most aghans & Iraqis travel to the UK travelling west by truck, not east-northeast-west by plane.
One illegal migrant maybe but im just pointing out these guys hooked up together previously in thailand and malaysia, and had or were advised to enter europe by the same method.
Re: Malaysia Airlines 777 Missing
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