Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
First, great idea of a thread, I feel that in a few years 1/400 will look similar to what it looks at the moment, i think that JCwings will become a big player in the market, aswell as phoenix continuing to grow, I also think we could see GJs large position in the market shrink because of JCs growth and the fact that GJ seem to focus a lot more on there 1/200 range these days.
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam92
First, great idea of a thread, I feel that in a few years 1/400 will look similar to what it looks at the moment, i think that JCwings will become a big player in the market, aswell as phoenix continuing to grow, I also think we could see GJs large position in the market shrink because of JCs growth and the fact that GJ seem to focus a lot more on there 1/200 range these days.
Well, GJ, PM and JC are all owned, designed and manufactured by ADI Corp.
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
This is a hobby that really came into being only about ten years ago, but it hit its stride pretty quickly. I think the potential for all sorts of new moulds and liveries is almost endless, and as the economy improves (as it will...eventually), so will the enthusiasm for this hobby, which has cooled a little lately IMO. Still a huge potential market for these beautiful models, and plenty of new hobbyists looking for something different and interesting to collect.
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by gospodin
This is a hobby that really came into being only about ten years ago, but it hit its stride pretty quickly. I think the potential for all sorts of new moulds and liveries is almost endless, and as the economy improves (as it will...eventually), so will the enthusiasm for this hobby, which has cooled a little lately IMO. Still a huge potential market for these beautiful models, and plenty of new hobbyists looking for something different and interesting to collect.
I was collecting schabak :600 well before that, and I thought they had some variety and volume, so it couldn't have been that obscure.
at the time, those schabaks looked fine. yeah, some defects, but they were fine. now they look awful, in comparison to today's models, even taking the difference in scale into account.
so perhaps it's safe to say there will be some improvement in :400 in the coming years. we've already seen ugly seams disappear; i wonder what's next.
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Doing poorly, overtaken by the growing 1:200 hobby.
For less than twice the price you get twice the model, with far better detail.
It will force people to be a hell of a lot more selective in their collecting habits, which is not a bad thing.
The politics which have infested the hobby over the past 4-5 years are driving people away, as are the 50-70 new releases a month.
Unicorn
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn
Doing poorly, overtaken by the growing 1:200 hobby.
For less than twice the price you get twice the model, with far better detail.
It will force people to be a hell of a lot more selective in their collecting habits, which is not a bad thing.
The politics which have infested the hobby over the past 4-5 years are driving people away, as are the 50-70 new releases a month.
Unicorn
Eventually Gemini will produce all available models, they way they are pumping them out means that it is inevitable. At this point I would like to see many new regionals in both the :400 scale and :200 scale. I hope they get rid of those damn rolling wheels as well!
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn
Doing poorly, overtaken by the growing 1:200 hobby.
For less than twice the price you get twice the model, with far better detail.
It will force people to be a hell of a lot more selective in their collecting habits, which is not a bad thing.
The politics which have infested the hobby over the past 4-5 years are driving people away, as are the 50-70 new releases a month.
Unicorn
I would agree. I too prefer the 1;200 for value received for the money spent.
Peewee
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnonCollector
I was collecting schabak :600 well before that, and I thought they had some variety and volume, so it couldn't have been that obscure.
at the time, those schabaks looked fine. yeah, some defects, but they were fine. now they look awful, in comparison to today's models, even taking the difference in scale into account.
so perhaps it's safe to say there will be some improvement in :400 in the coming years. we've already seen ugly seams disappear; i wonder what's next.
Huh. I thought this was about the future of 1/400, not 1/600. Small scale airplane models have been around since at least the '40s, just not in 1/400. The introduction of GJ and DW models in the late 90's spurred the 1/400 craze, which will still be stronger than the 1/200 collectibles 3 years from now. 1/200 is a very nice scale, but the price of one you might afford two or three of the smaller scale (or in the case of IF200, four or five), and they take up twice as much room. I still think collectors will opt for the 1/400 scale more often.
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
In three years I believe it will be same old same old for the most part. The even more interesting question is what is going to happen to DA.C in 3 years?
Ok Back on topic now...
The 1:400 scale market will be dominated by only a few manufacturers. Gemini Jets, Phoenix, and JC Wings. The 1:400 market will be declining in the next few years however, due to the rise and popularity of 1:200. All in all though 1:400 will be around to stay, GJ has gone 10 or some solid years of producing 1:400 scale models and I don't think 3 years is going to change them one bit.
But hey...The world is supposed to end in 2012 anyway so who cares!
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn
Doing poorly, overtaken by the growing 1:200 hobby.
For less than twice the price you get twice the model, with far better detail.
It will force people to be a hell of a lot more selective in their collecting habits, which is not a bad thing.
The politics which have infested the hobby over the past 4-5 years are driving people away, as are the 50-70 new releases a month.
Unicorn
I guess I'll be one of the few people digging around 1:400 scale land, and tell them when they still had 1:500 scale models being made in sizable quantities, as well as showing off my 500 scale "Antiques."
I sure hope that 1:400 won't be killed off by 200 scale. Just too much space for the aircraft for me. Then again, I do think that T-Gauge is the perfect scale for me, so go figure.
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnonCollector
I also doubt that :200 will kill off :400. Simply too big for me at least.
I wonder if :200 has higher profit margins for the manufacturers. I'm guessing it does.
I still think there will be some innovation or improvement. or maybe another round of zinc rot.
Exactly, a 1:200 model takes up 4x the display space. Way too big for my taste. Also, since the weight is 8x, the shipping costs are a lot higher, which is another factor.
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn
Doing poorly, overtaken by the growing 1:200 hobby.
For less than twice the price you get twice the model, with far better detail.
It will force people to be a hell of a lot more selective in their collecting habits, which is not a bad thing.
The politics which have infested the hobby over the past 4-5 years are driving people away, as are the 50-70 new releases a month.
Unicorn
Sorry, I don't agree with any of those statements.
Size isn't everything (a quote I got from somewhere) and collecting 1/200th means that those with space at a premium are only able to collect half as many models as they would in 1/400th. I am not prepared to pay nearly double the price for a model that I can just as easily be satisfied with in 1/400th at half the price. 1/200th does indeed mean people are far more selective and therefore buy less models than they would in 1/400th.
The politics have no bearing whatsoever on purchases for the majority of collectors as most don't even read these forums. They buy what they like regardless of any politics! I certainly do anyway and if a manufacturer makes what I want, nothing else matters.
I agree with LOT 737-300,AnonCollector and SilkAir A320
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DC-8s still needed to be done in 1/400: Air Ceylon, Air Spain, Seaboard World (-63CF)
Comets still missing- Dan Air (4 & 4C), United Arab Airlines/Misrair/Egyptair, Kuwait AW, Sudan AW, East African AW, Saudi Royal Flt.
Caravelles still not made: Luxair, Air Algerie,SABENA (final scheme), Libyan Arab Airlines, SAS ( SCANDINAVIAN titles scheme)
Ilyushin IL-18s still not made: Tarom (billboard,) Malev (1st scheme),Cubana, Balkan/ Tabso-Bulgarian Air Transport,
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by United Airlines DC-10
Eventually Gemini will produce all available models, they way they are pumping them out means that it is inevitable.
Really? That's a bold statement? What do you mean by 'all available models'? AC makes all the retro models and GJ have hardly touched that market. Also GJ can't keep up with all liveries on all airliners and certainly wouldn't sell them all if they did, so it would be pointless.
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Adrian
DC-8s still needed to be done in 1/400: Air Ceylon, Air Spain, Seaboard World (-63CF)
Comets still missing- Dan Air (4 & 4C), United Arab Airlines/Misrair/Egyptair, Kuwait AW, Sudan AW, East African AW, Saudi Royal Flt.
Caravelles still not made: Luxair, Air Algerie,SABENA (final scheme), Libyan Arab Airlines, SAS ( SCANDINAVIAN titles scheme)
Ilyushin IL-18s still not made: Tarom (billboard,) Malev (1st scheme),Cubana, Balkan/ Tabso-Bulgarian Air Transport,
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrian
Really? That's a bold statement? What do you mean by 'all available models'? AC makes all the retro models and GJ have hardly touched that market. Also GJ can't keep up with all liveries on all airliners and certainly wouldn't sell them all if they did, so it would be pointless.
I don't know though, it seems like GJ is trying to get themselves back into the nice balance they had earlier in the decade, part of it being pre 2000s stuff, the other half being modern stuff.
If they are, then I'd welcome it with open hands.
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
I am with you all who think that 1/200 would never kill 1/400.
There will always be a new collector each day (some of them are kids)...and 1/400 is a good thing to start with - while in the same token balancing the quality and price.
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrian
Really? That's a bold statement? What do you mean by 'all available models'? AC makes all the retro models and GJ have hardly touched that market. Also GJ can't keep up with all liveries on all airliners and certainly wouldn't sell them all if they did, so it would be pointless.
How many different planes are there?(I'm talking real planes) Gemini Jets will probably make all of the planes that they can make a profit on(Exclude airplanes such AN-225). Anyway how many new liveries are there each month? This new crap sucks, Gemini NEEDs to start focusing more on retro liveries and quit trying to please the kiddies.
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnonCollector
toss in some jellybean concordes.
I don't understand the appeal of fantasy liveries.
JellyBean Concordes - thats what we need!
I remember when the JetX came out and everybody wanted them. Now they are just cast asides. Who would of thought that would of happened? Only good thing about those models were the free GSE that came with them.
I see the current Magic 747's, A380's etc entering the ' extinct ' files soon enough.
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnonCollector
I don't understand the appeal of fantasy liveries.
If they're well-chosen fantasies, then I might consider them. A decent L-1011 mould done up with AA, UA Mainliner or current liveries, or a PSA 767 would be interesting. Exercises in what could have been. But yeah, I pretty much stick with what's been actually flying...I don't have any fantasy models in my collection. Especially Jellybeans...yuk.
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Delta747
The 1:400 scale market will be dominated by only a few manufacturers. Gemini Jets, Phoenix, and JC Wings.
I sincerely hope that if JC Wings are to join the "big three", that they improve their products. I refuse to buy JC Wings because a lot of their moulds are crap.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnonCollector
Heck, I refuse to buy a 787 model. I consider that a fantasy model.
A 787 in an airline livery would be a fantasy model, but I have the house livery N787BA, which exists.
Like you, I refuse to buy a fantasy model. The model must be that of an actual aircraft (though in the 787's case, even if it hasn't flown yet).
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WANTED: 1:400 BigBird Cathay Pacific B747-400 old colours VR-HOO and VR-HOP 1:400 Gemini Jets Cathay Pacific L-1011 old colours
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by CXB77L
I sincerely hope that if JC Wings are to join the "big three", that they improve their products. I refuse to buy JC Wings because a lot of their moulds are crap.
That used to be true, but now JC is offering top moulds nobody else have ever thought of and is also now top-quality. I think the days of AeroClassic's dominance in the retro market will soon be over.....
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by N8N1NW
That used to be true, but now JC is offering top moulds nobody else have ever thought of and is also now top-quality. I think the days of AeroClassic's dominance in the retro market will soon be over.....
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by N8N1NW
That used to be true, but now JC is offering top moulds nobody else have ever thought of and is also now top-quality. I think the days of AeroClassic's dominance in the retro market will soon be over.....
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
I did not say that 1:200 would kill 1:400, what I said was that 1:400 would be doing poorly.
Partly due to the growth of 1200, partly due to politics in the industry (one wonders when Aero-you-know-who is going to implode, given the recent shenanigans) and partly to an oversupply of releases into a declining market.
I do not foresee the death of 1:400, after all 1:500 is still chugging along despite the arrival of 1:400.
I just foresee that 1:200 may well become the 'flight to quality' scale for many.
Unicorn
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
..... I really can't see anything will be much different three years from now as it was three years ago.
I'd say a rep of one manufacturer will be still ranting and bad-mouthing every other manufacturer while unable to see the flaws in his own product due to wearing rose-colored glasses.
Probably as many new dies coming out as now.
Maybe some duplication or reissue of earlier liveries/models.
Prices will probably will be higher as costs rise.
Possibly fewer manufacturers. Some may go away completely while others may drop 1/400 in favor of other scales.
I don't know how much quality might improve, but dropping "rolling gears" would be a retro start back.I don't know if the collecting community will become more selective as I have.
..... As for the world ending in 2012, there are no predictions anywhere saying anything of the sort, just pop-culture twisting of anything.
Dave
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dboyd001
..... I really can't see anything will be much different three years from now as it was three years ago.
Probably as many new dies coming out as now.
Maybe some duplication or reissue of earlier liveries/models.
Prices will probably will be higher as costs rise.
Possibly fewer manufacturers. Some may go away completely while others may drop 1/400 in favor of other scales.
..... As for the world ending in 2012, there are no predictions anywhere saying anything of the sort, just pop-culture twisting of anything.
Dave
For the first and second one, I wouldn't mind having a shot of drink for that one. For the third, it is something I wouldn't want to see, but sadly will have to expect unless something (usually not good) causes prices of goods to fall (possibly the few only good things coming from these not good things).
The last one is the most pessimistic of course . I'd like to think though that Dragon is possibly preparing themselves to going back to being more active in the market once the scale has become a bit less crowded.
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Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unicorn
Doing poorly, overtaken by the growing 1:200 hobby.
For less than twice the price you get twice the model, with far better detail.
It will force people to be a hell of a lot more selective in their collecting habits, which is not a bad thing.
The politics which have infested the hobby over the past 4-5 years are driving people away, as are the 50-70 new releases a month.
Unicorn
Well Put, But I See Other Changes As Well.
Future State Of The Union.
Since Zareh Bought A eroklassics, I Suspect More Sellable Product Will Come To Market And Fewer "Niche" Liveries That No One Really Wants. That Is Of Course If A ndrew Is Still Not Really Running The Show Or Has Any Influence In The Decision Making.
That Also May Mean The End Of The A K Vs JC/AV-400 Batlles Where We See Duplication In Releases.
This Also Could Be A Positive Step In Regards To The Recent Losses Of Major Dealer Networks.
But Of Course That's Only Really Conjecture, Who Really Knows What Direction ************ Will Take.
Gemini Will Do As They Always Do. Make Product That Sells.
Phoenix Will Always Specialize, With Small Numbers, But With The Recent Glut Of CX-772s & 773s, Perhaps They May Adapt Thier Numbers Dictated By Demand On A Release By Release Basis.
JC Is A Newcomer To The Market And They Seem To Fill In What's Really Missing And Often In Demand, With Some Surprises. They No Doubt Will Grow.
AV-400 Moulds Are Generally Not Good & They Seem To Have No Direction, So Difficult To Predict What Will Become Of The Line.
Jet-X Has Carved A Niche Clientelle Through The Club And The Buzz, But Numbers Have Dwindled & Quality Iffy. I think They Will Always Be Around On Some Measure.
Herpa Has Always Lurked In The Shadows Both In 1/400 And 1/200 Scales, But With Recent Restructuring And Improvements In Both Lines (Particularly 1/400) We May See Herpa As A Contender In The Market.
DW Seems To Be Doing Absolutely Nothing. It Appears Nothing Will Change For The Moment.
Heavy Is Considering 7 Models This Month, Including The Qantas SP.
He Hasn't Purchased A Single Model Since April.
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Last edited by L-1011-Heavy; 11-03-2009 at 07:06 PM.
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by N8N1NW
That used to be true, but now JC is offering top moulds nobody else have ever thought of and is also now top-quality. I think the days of AeroClassic's dominance in the retro market will soon be over.....
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
i'd like to see Herpa getting more involved in the 1/400 market. their A380 mould and and their 346 is great.
i just inspected their 1/500 AN-225 mould today at my retailer, VERY impressing (and accuracy at it's best) - what a F***in' huge BEAST !!!
definately Herpas mould of the year!
i really hope they release the 1/400 version too...
i guess 3 years ago, nobody would have thought of having that big bird in the collection, but when i NOW see have it in the small scale, 1/400 can't be THAT far away...
__________________ Please NG Models, consider these for both 1:400 and 1:200: B707-320B/321, B727-200, MD-81/82/83
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
I'd like to think that somehow there will become a made to order system whereby you can go to a manufacturers website, choose a mould, livery and reg, then a press 'GO' which initiates a clever and affordable system in a factory somewhere that gives all of us niche collectors the chance to get the planes we want.
__________________ Let's be having, the British Airways/British, Negus & Negus BAC 1-11-500 in 1:400 please !
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
I think the 400 scale will be like crop rotation.... We will be presented with the latest and greatest of the 1/400 scale. For example, the Gemini Jets Air Tahiti Nui A340, the next version will come out with the detailed landing gear and rolling wheels. New and improved DC-10's with detailed gear and a visible turbine on the no.3 engine. ..... Eventually all models that have been previously released will be re-released with new improvements, better details... Like other members have stated, for the price and detail, and space, 1/400 is more bang for the buck / or the currency you use. Unless 1/200 becomes cheaper to produce, I predict that 1/400 will remain a widely collected scale. As for the companies. I do see some of the newer manufacturers like Inflight 400 and JC honing their abilities and becoming better in quality, comparable to that of Gemini Jets, Phoenix and Aero Classix.
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Last edited by Blue Angel No.5; 12-16-2009 at 04:51 PM.
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Al
I'd like to think that somehow there will become a made to order system whereby you can go to a manufacturers website, choose a mould, livery and reg, then a press 'GO' which initiates a clever and affordable system in a factory somewhere that gives all of us niche collectors the chance to get the planes we want.
Great idea!!! lets have a Redtail 225!
__________________ Please NG Models, consider these for both 1:400 and 1:200: B707-320B/321, B727-200, MD-81/82/83
Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
Re: Where do you see 1:400 scale market in 3 years?
. I'd like to think though that Dragon is possibly preparing themselves to going back to being more active in the market once the scale has become a bit less crowded.
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